Political and socio-economic situation in the country. Socio-political and socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation”. The economy of the 2000s
Expert opinions on the development of the economic situation in Russia in 2018 are radically different. Optimists share the point of view of officials and count on the resumption of growth. Pessimists emphasize the vulnerability of the domestic economic model to external challenges, which could lead to a new period of turbulence.
The Russian economy is recovering from the crisis, which is reflected in the improvement of macroeconomic indicators. According to the forecasts of IMF experts, the economic situation in Russia in 2018 will continue positive trends. Domestic GDP growth will accelerate to 1.44%, while inflation will approach 4%. In addition, the unemployment rate will remain at 5.5%. Such estimates coincide with the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, where they expect the resumption of sustainable economic growth.
The head of the department, Maxim Oreshkin, expects GDP growth at the level of 1.5-1.7%. At the same time, the real incomes of the population will grow up to 2%, and the growth of investments will reach 2.2-3.9%. Despite the resumption of growth, Oreshkin notes the lag in the growth rate of the Russian economy, which is due to the lack of necessary reforms.
Experts also note other factors that will constrain the development of the domestic economy.
Barriers to the domestic economy
The head of the Center for Strategic Research, Alexei Kudrin, notes the factors that could worsen the economic situation in Russia in 2018:
- The Russian economy remains dependent on oil prices, which remains the main factor of instability. In fact, the old economic model continues to operate, which demonstrated its inefficiency during the crisis.
- Low efficiency of institutions government controlled which negatively affects economic incentives.
- Demographic factors create imbalances for the pension system. The number of pensioners per worker continues to increase, which leads to an increase in the Pension Fund deficit.
- The current sanctions restrict access to foreign financial markets. As a result, the Russian economy is deprived of resources for development.
In addition, experts note the outflow of capital, which will worsen the dynamics of the domestic economy in the medium term. In the first 4 months of 2017, this indicator reached $21 billion, which is twice the dynamics of the previous year.
Under such conditions, the deterioration of the external environment is fraught with new shocks for the domestic economic model. Without structural reforms, the Russian economy will not enter a sustainable growth trajectory.
Structural reforms
Representatives of the Ministry of Finance note a number of reforms that will help improve the economic situation in 2018. The department's experts intend to reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on fluctuations in the oil market. In addition, the Ministry of Finance intends to improve the financial system and review the administrative burden on business representatives.
The main goal of the Ministry of Finance is to ensure sustainable annual economic growth at the level of 3.0-3.5%. To do this, the department plans to change the current budget rules, which will help rid the economy of dependence on oil. Previously, the lion's share of proceeds from the export of energy resources was used to finance the expenditure side, which created the preconditions for economic crises. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance propose to concentrate these resources to accelerate economic growth.
In addition, for the sustainable growth of the Russian economy, it is necessary to modernize business administration and tax policy. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance plans to reduce the burden on conscientious market participants and increase tax collection. The main priority of the Ministry of Finance remains to reduce the volume of the shadow economy, which will significantly increase budget revenues.
Officials expect to significantly improve the investment climate, which will provide the economy with the necessary resources for development. Also, the department is concerned about the lack of efficiency of public administration, which leads to additional financial losses.
Despite the restoration of positive dynamics, experts do not exclude the resumption of crisis phenomena. The pessimistic outlook for 2018 suggests a significant deterioration in the economic situation.
New fall
The main factor that could lead to the implementation of the pessimistic scenario is a sharp decline in oil prices. Experts allow the collapse of quotations to $40 per barrel, which will be a new shock for the domestic economy.
Despite the improvement in macroeconomic indicators, the economic situation remains extremely vulnerable. The authorities have not created the foundation for a new economic model, which could lead to a repetition of the crisis. Moreover, in 2015-2016 officials used most of the financial reserves, which will significantly limit the government's ability to reduce the next price of "black gold".
Future economic growth depends on the extension of conditions to reduce oil production, analysts stress. In addition, the intention of China and India to increase the use of electric vehicles leads to a decrease in oil demand, which will hinder the recovery of the balance in the market. Under such conditions, the cost of a barrel may fall to $40 and remain at this level throughout 2018.
The economic situation in 2018 will remain positive. GDP growth will reach 1.5%, the government is sure, and inflation will slow down to 4%. To accelerate economic growth, it is necessary to implement structural reforms, which will reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors.
A new collapse in oil prices may trigger a pessimistic scenario that suggests a new period of crisis.
2.1 General socio-economic situation in Russia
In the last five years, since 2000, Russia has been experiencing fairly rapid economic growth. It began in 1999, but the growth of social indicators began a year later. Before that, there was a deep socio-economic crisis. There are several reasons for the long-term Russian crisis, which lasted 10 years:
the first factor: The crisis erupted due to the inability of the planned economy to effectively manage the economy
second factor: the crisis was exacerbated by the collapse of the Soviet Union. Its republics constituted a single national economic complex, and the loss of close ties between these republics naturally affected the decline in production.
third factor: Our country was quite militarized, the share of defense industries was huge. During the crisis, the production of military equipment fell dramatically - 11 times. The crisis also affected related industries, which were provided by the defense industry.
fourth factor: The actual transition to the market. This is an extremely painful thing, associated with a huge reduction in production.
The crisis was exceptionally severe and developed very unevenly. Compared to the pre-crisis year of 1989, the gross domestic product has almost halved, industry has more than halved, and investment has 5 times. Unemployment amounted to 13% of the population. The worst indicator was depopulation - the death rate in Russia was 1.8 times higher than the birth rate. And, finally, in 1998, the financial crisis was superimposed on the general socio-economic crisis. Industrial production fell another 5%.
To date, we are still at the stage of overcoming the crisis, it is still far from a complete exit. However, after a five-year leap forward, today the figures look somewhat better. In general, over five years, gross domestic product has grown by about 30%, real money income by 45%, investment by 40%, real wages have increased by 75% over the past four years. Development during these five years was mainly due to the factor positive influence devaluation of the ruble, and therefore due to exports. The so-called “backlash” against the economic decline, that is, recovery growth, also had an effect.
So, let's take a closer look at individual indicators of the standard of living of the population of Russia.
2.2 Gross domestic product (GDP)
Indicator of national income statistics in the system of national accounts; expresses the total value of final goods and services produced in the territory of a given country, in market prices. In its in-kind form, GDP is a set of items and services used during a given year for consumption and accumulation.
Table 1.1 Volume and dynamics of the Gross Domestic Product in 2000-2005:
Year | Gross domestic product (billion rubles) | Absolute growth (per year) | Growth rate (%) | Growth rate (%) | Absolute value of 1% increase |
2000 | 7306 | 2483 | 151,48 | 51,48 | 48,23 |
2001 | 8944 | 1638 | 122,42 | 22,42 | 73,06 |
2002 | 10831 | 1887 | 121,10 | 21,10 | 89,44 |
2003 | 13243 | 2412 | 122,27 | 22,27 | 108,31 |
2004 | 16752 | 3509 | 126,50 | 26,50 | 132,43 |
2005 | 13134,42 | 1072 | 106,40 | 6,40 | 167,52 |
GDP characterizes the final result of the production activity of all resident production units. It is regarded as the most general indicator of a country's economic activity and well-being. As can be seen from this table, the welfare of Russia in the period from 2000 to 2005 has been rapidly improving. It is especially necessary to note the year 2000, at that moment the GDP growth amounted to 51.48%, that is, it doubled. This is a colossal breakthrough, because at that time Russia was at the very beginning of its way out of the crisis. Such high level was achieved by a large increase in exports and the emergence of many goods that can replace imports.
Chart 2.1
However, after 2000, the growth weakened, which is clearly seen in the graph, by 2002 the decline reached a level of less than 22%. This is due to the fact that the previously incredibly beneficial devaluation factor began to lose its significance every year. The dollar stopped growing, and by 2004 it grew by 20%, while prices increased by 2.5 times. The devaluation effect disappeared.
To date, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia predicts an increase in this indicator by an average of 6% in the next two years, in addition, the main task for the next decade is to double Russia's GDP. At the same time, to accomplish this task, the consolidation of the political forces of society is necessary. Doubling GDP is a massive task that will require deep analysis and refinement of existing approaches to economic policy. However, experts are confident that the country has all the conditions to solve this problem. Russia is quite capable of doubling its economic potential in 10 years if the average annual growth rates are kept at the level of the first quarter of 2004.
3. Prospects and tasks of the socio-economic development of Russia
The basis for constant, high-quality and safe economic growth as a condition for socio-economic development is created in areas that contribute to the development of human potential: education, science, culture, healthcare, social protection, therefore ensuring their normal functioning is the main social function states.
Currently, there is no balance between the social obligations of the state and its ability to mobilize social resources.
The policy of the state on the development of social insurance should be considered in the same context with its economic and financial policy. Coordinated and purposeful actions are required to improve the overall living standard. This implies a combination of accelerated economic growth with an effective system of income tax measures, with control over the prices of goods included in the "physiological minimum basket". These measures are among the most important strategic tasks for ensuring economic and social stability in society. It is also necessary to emphasize their interconnectedness. After all, even modest economic growth creates favorable conditions for expanding the base of taxes and contributions to social insurance funds, helps to reduce unemployment and expands access to social assistance systems. At the same time, social peace in society, stable and friendly relations between employees and employers, achieved to a large extent with the help of the social insurance system, it is legitimate, along with labor and capital, to consider as another, third, production factor. Developed social insurance systems are able to provide positive influence on the state of the economy and the social position of workers through rational redistribution of income, active stimulation of savings of the population, increasing its purchasing power.
In the medium term, it is necessary to prevent a further increase in the gap between Russia and developed countries, and in the long term, to restore and strengthen Russia's position as one of the leading countries in world development. The most important condition for leadership in a post-industrial society is the development of human potential, improving the quality of life of the population.
In the main directions of the socio-economic policy of the Government Russian Federation in the long term, by 2010 it is planned to ensure "Russia's exit to a qualitatively new level of development, characterized by a growing economy, an effective state, the presence of an independent middle class, and stable social and political relations."
Conclusion
In my opinion, I fulfilled the tasks assigned to me, I covered a large amount of material, while highlighting the main points and problems of the market economy and the socio-economic situation in Russia.
I identified the main causes, conditions, principles of transition to a market economy. He also gave an objective assessment of the results of market reforms, set the main tasks of the economy for the future.
After analyzing, in my opinion, the most important and representative statistical indicators, I gave general characteristics socio-economic situation of the country. The work also reflects the main goals and prospects for the development of the country in the future, and sets tasks for further development.
Russia is a legal social state, the idea of which, formulated by the international community for the modern type of market economy, is the political and legal ordering of the life of society on the principles of humanism, the implementation of a set of social and protective functions, and the creation of conditions for the development of civil society.
List of used literature
1. Aukutsionek S.P. “Theory of transition to the market” - Publishing house SvR - Argus, Moscow, 1995.
2. Brew S.L., McConnell K.R. "Economics" 13th edition - Infra-M Publishing House, Moscow, 1999.
Currently, the Russian Federation is experiencing a downward trend in economic activity. Thus, from January to November 2015, the country's GDP decreased by 3.8%. The real disposable cash income of the population, compared with 2014, decreased by 3.5%, and the real wages of employees of organizations by 9.2%. The real incomes of the population, salaries and pensions decreased in 73 regions of the country.
Stagnation is observed in industrial production, the only exception is mining (a decrease of only 0.1%, y/y). As of November 2015, sales of industrial products remain in the red. However, demand continues to decline no longer as intensively as in previous months (Bozhechkova, Burdyak, Grishina, 2015). Industrial production is declining due to rising costs, lack of investment and low level demand caused by the reduction in real incomes of the population.
An analysis of the socio-economic situation of the population shows that about half of them report a deterioration in the economic situation in the country, and a third of the respondents believe that this situation will continue for one to two or more years. Due to rising prices, the population of the country reduces its consumption. The consumer price index for 2015 increased by 12.1%, which indicates an increase in the cost of the basic basket of goods and services and, as a result, the transition of households to a selective savings model of consumption.
As of November 2015, the number of unemployed in Russia is 4.4 million people (5.8% of the economically active population) . At the same time, the number of part-time workers who are idle at the initiative of the administration and on vacation is 258.5 thousand people. The factor in the increase in the unemployment rate is the decrease in the need of employers for employees, for example, in November 2015 the number of vacancies decreased by 81 thousand. The number of employees in organizations is also decreasing by an average of 1% per year across the country. In the last months of 2015, there was an increase in wage arrears, which, as of December 1, amounted to 3.9 billion rubles. Wage arrears increased significantly in the production and distribution of electricity, in construction and transport.
According to the results of January-November 2015, the retail trade turnover decreased by 9.3%. Moreover, the share of food retail turnover is steadily growing. At the same time, the level of commodity stocks in retail trade remains stable and is 38 days in November.
The volume of paid services to the population keeps negative dynamics. The decline in this area is influenced by the reduction in the consumption of a group of “mandatory” services to the population, such as communication services, transport, and housing and communal services, which occupy 60% in the structure of paid services to the population. In segments such as services physical culture and sports, cultural institutions, hotels and similar accommodations, as well as health and wellness and medical services, there has been an increase in volume. Consequently, due to the situation in the foreign exchange market and the depreciation of the ruble, part of the country's population cannot afford to vacation abroad, preferring domestic tourism.
The issuance of loans to the population in 2015 decreased due to the tightening of the rules for their issuance, higher interest rates on loans, changes in the foreign exchange market and a decrease in activity in the housing market. Having paid off a loan, borrowers do not take new ones, which reduces the population's debt to banks as a whole, but the share of overdue loans is growing.
Disproportions in regional development persist in Russia, which were formed back in Soviet times and are still manifested at all levels, from federal districts to municipalities. The regions of the Russian Federation can be divided into five groups (Belkina, 2015):
- 1. Big cities with developed modern sectors of the economy, including post-industrial ones. These cities are characterized by a high degree of development of the service sector and human capital, as well as a developed infrastructure. The cities of this group are the political and financial centers of the country. Examples of such cities are Moscow and St. Petersburg.
- 2. Regions with developed industrial production. These regions are characterized by the presence of machine-building industries, the chemical industry, high-tech instrumentation, and so on. In this group, as in the first, there is a high degree of development of infrastructure and human capital. Examples of regions from this group are the Moscow and Leningrad regions, as well as some cities of the Urals
- 3. Special economic zones in which favorable conditions have been created for conducting economic activities. These regions are characterized by a favorable geographical position, which is manifested in the presence of ports, intersections of transport links, border position with developed countries and a favorable climate. There are four types of special economic zones: industrial-production, tourist-recreational, technology-innovative and port. Examples of these regions are Murmansk region, Republic of Tatarstan and Stavropol Territory.
- 4. Regions specializing in the extraction, processing and export of raw materials. This group includes regions that produce low value-added products that are in demand on the world market. Examples of regions from this group are Tyumen and Sakhalin region, regions of the Urals and Siberia.
- 5. Regions remote from the center (periphery). These regions are characterized by low levels of human capital and/or population density. The infrastructure in them is rather poorly developed. They are dominated by weakly mechanized and agricultural production. There are also mono-industrial regions. Examples are the regions of the northern part of the country, Eastern Siberia, Far East, Lower Volga region, North Caucasus and others.
The first four groups of regions are considered to be regions of advanced development; all of them are characterized by a high quality of human capital for the country and developed infrastructure, which allows maintaining a relatively high standard of living for the population. The regions of the fifth group are considered regions of lagging development. During the Soviet period, large industrial and scientific centers were created in a number of them, but later they were ruined and closed. Currently, these regions are subsidized, characterized by a low standard of living compared to other regions of the Russian Federation and high mobility of the population, which prefers moving to more attractive regions.
In the first half of the 2000s, inequality between regions gradually decreased in Russia. As before, clear leaders stood out, Moscow and St. Petersburg, which remained the centers of the economic and political life of the country, but the gap between all regions of Russia was shrinking from year to year.
This process slowed down and practically stopped in 2008. Due to the financial crisis, many large projects in the regions were canceled and frozen, which contributed to the deterioration of the economic climate both in them and in the country as a whole. This period is characterized by a refusal to invest in projects with a long payback period, the withdrawal of investments from the country and an increase in the mobility of the population. Subsequently, as the economic situation improved, the disproportions between the regions began to decrease again, but a new wave of the economic crisis and sanctions applied to Russia could again stop this process (Kuznetsova, 2015).
Such a development of the situation could not but affect the state and development opportunities in the regional systems of school education. Changes in school education in the country as a whole should be considered in more detail.
Financing of education in 2015 in the country sharply to 405.54 billion rubles. For comparison, in 2014, 3,037.29 billion rubles were spent on education. Thus, over the year, even without recalculation in comparable prices, public funding decreased by more than 7 times.
The reduction in funding, in particular, is associated with the law on normative per capita financing of educational institutions that came into force. Budget educational institutions became directly dependent on the number of students. However, the amount of payment per student varies significantly in different regions of the country, as it depends on the regional calculated per capita standard, which is determined according to the budget of the region. This situation leads to a gap between the regions in terms of such an important indicator from the point of view of motivation as the ratio of the efforts expended by the teacher and the salary received by him. This favors the relocation of teachers to more attractive regions.
There was no significant difference in the perception of parents of students of the school situation in different regions, despite significant objective differences in the standard of living, not revealed (Klyachko, Avraamova, Loginov, 2014). Regardless of the region of Russia, parents make the same requirements for teachers and expect similar results. The difference in the salaries of teachers from different regions does little to stimulate a reduction in the differentiation of schools in terms of the quality of education.
There is a tendency to reduce the number of secondary educational institutions in the country. Thus, over the period from 2012 to 2015, their number decreased from 46.2 thousand secondary educational institutions to 42.6 thousand. At the same time, the number of students over the same period increased from 13,713 thousand to 14,666 thousand students (according Rosstat). Therefore, given this trend, we can say that the number of students studying in one educational institution will increase. And in connection with the per capita funding of educational institutions, the amount of funding for a separate secondary educational institution will increase in direct proportion to the increase in the number of students.
With the introduction of the mandatory USE in the Russian Federation, a universal criterion for evaluating the activities of teachers and the school as a whole has been formed. As the country develops, the attitude towards the activities of teachers on the part of the leadership and parents of students is gradually changing (Avraamova, Belyakov, Klyachko, 2015).
As a result, a study of educational institutions in four regions of Russia showed that competition between schools has intensified, not only to attract new students, but also teachers. Thanks to the results of the Unified State Examination and the availability of information in open sources, most parents try to send their children to those schools that have the best results. Accordingly, schools are interested in attracting teachers who are more focused on preparing for the USE.
At the same time, only 25% of parents believe that school preparation for passing the exam will be enough. Most people prefer to apply for additional education to tutors in all subjects of interest. Teachers largely agree with the opinion of parents. Thus, only 33% of the teachers surveyed believe that most schools can give students the knowledge and skills to pass the GIA and the Unified State Examination for high scores without additional preparation.
As a result, the requirements of parents to the school are reduced to three main areas: to give children the knowledge necessary in later life and work; provide socialization; to instill a penchant for sports and productive leisure activities. Moreover, specialized schools cope better with this task (Klyachko, Avraamova, Loginov, 2014). However, assessments of the implementation of these tasks remain at a low level. Only 45% of the parents surveyed believe that these tasks are being implemented at least to some extent.
Thus, there is a change in the perception of the goals of the school and school education on the part of the parents of students, who are one of the most important categories of stakeholders, which largely determines the own goals of secondary education organizations. Accordingly, the motivation system of teachers may gradually change, on which the opinion that essential function school is the socialization of children, while knowledge for admission to higher educational establishments"purchased" from tutors or from tutors acting in that capacity, but on a private basis.
In 2013, schools in Russia switched to remuneration of teachers depending on the success of their students. An increase in wages occurs in the form of an increase in the bonus part when students achieve certain successes. Success criteria are expressed in prizes at various conferences and competitions, as well as USE results, GIA and various monitorings.
This payment system has existed for several years in European countries. According to research, student performance after the introduction of wages, depending on the success of students, improves the performance of the latter by 25% in mathematics and literature, and by 15.4% in other subjects (Woessmann, 2011). At the same time, there was no direct connection between the size of the dependent part of the teacher's salary and the progress of students. That is, the size of the remuneration of the teacher in case of success of his students does not have a significant impact on the progress of students, only the fact that the salary is directly related to the grades of the students is important.
The population of the country in 2015 was 146.3 million people (increased by 2.6 million people compared to 2014), which indicates that the demographic rise within the country continues. To provide the population with secondary education, there are 42.6 thousand general educational organizations, in which at the beginning of 2015 14666 thousand people studied and 1054 thousand teachers worked (according to Rosstat) .
It should be noted that since 2008 the number of students in general education institutions has been on average at the level of 137 thousand people, while the number of teachers in 2009 decreased by 304 thousand and continued to decline until 2014. Therefore, the average The number of students per teacher has increased. So, in 2008 it was 9.77 students, and now it is 13.91 people (according to Rosstat) .
The ongoing education reform in Russia unites general education and preschool institutions into single centers, which contributes to a reduction in funding for education in general. The consequence is that part of the teachers, in connection with the emerging changes, is forced to look for a new job.
Carrying out the most important tasks of maintaining public order and ensuring public safety in our cities and settlements By ensuring the protection and defense of important state facilities, including the country's nuclear and weapons complexes, being in readiness to suppress an armed conflict in any region of Russia, the internal troops are the guarantor of the security and integrity of the state.
In today's lesson, we will consider what tasks the internal troops, the troops of the regional command and the military units of the formation will have to solve in 2011 in the current socio-political and socio-economic situation.
First study question (20 minutes):
Socio-political and socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation”.
Maintaining the internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia in a high degree of combat readiness is an indispensable condition for ensuring the military security of the state, and the successful solution of the tasks assigned to them can be performed only with a detailed analysis of the current socio-political and socio-economic situation in the country.
In particular brief description and assessment of contemporary socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation gave the President of the Russian Federation D.A. Medvedev in his annual Address to Federal Assembly November 30, 2010:
« We have been able to stabilize the economy after a significant downturn, and this year economic growth will be about 4 percent. Despite the increase in food prices, which, unfortunately, happened all over the world, we did not allow a jump in inflation. The task for the three-year perspective is to reduce it to 4-5 percent per year ...
The number of unemployed now stands at about 5 million people, that is, it has decreased by 2 million compared to the peak of the crisis. This is a significant achievement. The amount of sovereign debt is minimal. The current level of Russia's international reserves (which is about half a trillion dollars) is significantly higher than this figure in the past.
After anti-crisis measures unprecedented in their scale, we are moving to a more balanced budget policy.
Real incomes of the population over the past months have grown by about 5 percent. For the next year, an increase in salaries for state employees is envisaged. Target programs for providing housing for veterans and servicemen are being implemented.
We find opportunities to increase pensions every year. The task set by me to provide all pensioners with incomes not lower than the subsistence minimum has been solved.
The domestic nuclear industry has returned to serial construction and the annual commissioning of capacities. Now nine power units are being built in the country, while Russia is also implementing projects in India, Iran, China and other countries. Over the past three years, orders from the nuclear industry to machine building have grown up to 10 times, and compared to 2005 - 25 times. This is a good number. This, of course, is both income for the budget and a direct benefit for all workers in this industry.
One more topic. The world rating (the so-called top 500) of supercomputers now includes 11 Russian systems. AT next year the performance of the domestic Lomonosov supercomputer will increase by more than 2.5 times, and it will become one of the most powerful computers in the world. By the end of the year, the GLONASS satellite constellation will be fully formed, and in the next two years the creation of the main digital navigation maps will be completed and the use of satellite navigators of the system will begin. GLONASS capabilities will now serve the mass user.
As early as next year, digital access to the package of mandatory TV channels will be provided in most border regions. We will build more than 1000 objects of the state network of digital television broadcasting. This year we "taught" worldwide network Russian language. This is important even for our country. The ".rf" domain zone is open and is rapidly gaining popularity. I believe that this is also our achievement.
In addition, we have begun implementing a new strategy for the development of Russian pharmaceuticals. In the coming years, the share of domestic products in our market should be increased, and increased radically - from 20 to 50 percent, and innovative drugs - up to 60 percent. This will increase the availability of medicines for the population.
Compared to 2005, the birth rate in Russia increased by more than 21 percent. This, by the way, I note, is one of the best indicators in the world. Infant mortality has fallen by a quarter. Last year, for the first time in 15 years, we managed to achieve growth in Russia's population. To a large extent, this is, of course, the result of maternity capital, the national project "Health" and other measures of social support for families".
The heavy economic legacy inherited from USSR made it difficult to carry out reforms in Russia. However, since January 1992 Russian government headed by E. T. Gaidar, embarked on economic reforms designed to ensure the transition to the market, to legitimate private property. By this time, the country was in an extremely difficult situation. Per last year prices rose by 8-11 times, the gross national product decreased by 15-20%. There were practically no industrial goods or food products left on the shelves of stores. The extractive industries and the military-industrial complex dominated the Russian economy, megalomania flourished, many enterprises produced obsolete products that no one needed. The economic reform program to bring the country out of the crisis included a number of measures: the liberalization of prices for most goods, i.e., the rejection of their administrative regulation, freedom of trade and privatization - the sale of most state property to private individuals. The chosen path of "shock therapy", according to the supporters of the so-called monetary model of the economy, was supposed to lead to a balance between solvent demand (enterprises and the population) and product supply. It was believed that in the end it would be possible to achieve economic stabilization and create the necessary conditions for her rise. However, optimistic forecasts were not confirmed. The liberalization of prices led to their growth not by 5 times, as planned, but by 100 or more times. Most of the country's population was below the poverty line. Not only did the issue of money unsecured by the mass of commodities not stop, but it constantly grew. On the whole, in 1992, the issue of cash increased by 54 times compared to 1990. Hopes for achieving market equilibrium and curbing inflation have dissipated. The government was forced to establish a high level of taxation, to minimize budget spending on social needs and maintenance of the army, and to resort to other unpopular economic measures. As a result, social tension in society increased. Opposition to the government's course intensified. The stronghold was the Congress of People's Deputies and its Supreme Soviet. Differences also arose within the Russian leadership itself. A number of statesmen, in particular Vice-President A. V. Rutskoi, criticized the reform policy pursued by the Gaidar government. Under pressure from the 7th Congress of People's Deputies, Yeltsin agreed to the resignation of Gaidar, who at that time (December 1992) was acting prime minister. V. S. Chernomyrdin became the new prime minister.
The collapse of the USSR and the collapse of perestroika drew a line under the attempts of socialist reformism. The crisis in all spheres of society, which accompanied the emergence of sovereign states on the ruins of the Soviet Union, was extremely difficult.
In Russia, by the autumn of 1991, the situation in the economic sphere had become catastrophic, especially in the field of the country's food supply. Coupons were introduced in all cities. Often these coupons simply had nothing to buy. More than 60 out of 89 Russian regions had no stocks of food grain at all, and flour production was carried out due to the immediate (from wheels) processing of incoming grain by import.
Foreign exchange reserves were almost completely exhausted, and for the first time in the entire existence of the state, the gold reserve was less than 300 tons on January 1, 1992. The ruble as a monetary unit was on the verge of death. This meant that there was no point in engaging in production activities, because nothing could be bought with the rubles earned from the sale. The country fell into collapse, the threat of hunger and cold became real. What to do in this situation? Theoretically, there were two ways:
The first is to introduce emergency measures and supply the cities with food by force, but this path is in the 20th century. the country has already passed several times;
The second is to liberalize the economy through radical reforms.
In the last months of 1991, President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin formed a government consisting of young reformers, in which the leading role was played by the scientist-economist E.T. Gaidar. He was a proponent of liberal market reforms and took responsibility for the difficult and painful decisions to implement the reform.
The reforms proposed by E.T. Gaidar, exacerbated most of the social problems:
Chronic delays in the payment of wages began;
Unemployment appeared, the growth of which constantly increased;
The criminogenic situation in society has become aggravated;
The standard of living of a significant part of the population began to fall;
The unseen has become a reality last years property stratification;
The demographic situation has worsened (a drop in the birth rate, an increase in mortality); "brain drain" abroad has taken on a massive character, where decent conditions for work and life are created for them.
The transformation of the socio-economic system was very difficult and had a negative trend in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) growth until 1996. The first signs of economic growth appeared in 1997, when industrial output increased compared to the previous year.
The financial crisis of August 17, 1998, despite its severity and tragedy for part of the country's population, turned out to be a positive fact for domestic industry. Financial pyramid schemes that diverted funds from the real sector of the economy collapsed, and excess imports decreased. Production (including in the military-industrial complex) began to revive. Favorable for Russia in 1999-2007. There was also a conjuncture for oil on world markets, which made it possible to significantly increase state revenues. Since 2000, GDP has had a steady, on average 6%, annual growth. During this period, Russia managed to pay off its external debts. However, much remains to be done before the Russian economy becomes strong, competitive and prosperous.