Arab Spring results. The Arab Spring and its aftermath. The role of social media
THE SITUATION AROUND EGYPT
ARAB REVOLUTIONS
As a result, within the framework of the so-called "Arab Spring" there were:
coups in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen;
civil wars in Libya and Syria;
civil uprising in Bahrain;
mass protests in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco and Oman;
less significant protests in Djibouti, Western Sahara, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan.
The events in the Palestinian National Authority in May 2011 were also inspired by the local Arab Spring.
The protests used common methods of civil resistance in long campaigns: strikes, demonstrations, marches and rallies, as well as the use of social media to organize, communicate and inform in attempts of state repression and Internet censorship. Many of the demonstrations were met with violent reactions from the authorities as well as pro-government militias and counter-demonstrators. The main slogan of the demonstrators in the Arab world was "The people want the fall of the regime."
The name "Arab spring" echoes the expression "spring of peoples", which was used to describe the period of revolutions in Europe in 1848-1849.
A series of protests across the Middle East and North Africa became known as the "Arab Spring", as well as the "Arab Spring and Winter", the "Arab Awakening", the "Pan-Arab Revolution", and the "Arab Revolts", although not all protesters identified themselves as Arabs. .
Chronologically, it began with protests in Western Sahara in October 2010, but in fact it began with protests in Tunisia on December 18, 2010 after the self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi in protest against police corruption and mistreatment.
After Tunisia, the wave of unrest spread to Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Yemen, and then spread to other countries. The largest and most organized demonstrations often took place on the "day of wrath" - usually on Friday after midday prayer. The protests also sparked similar unrest outside the region.
As of 2012, revolutions have led to the overthrow of four heads of state. In Tunisia, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (January 14, 2011). In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak (February 11, 2011). In Libya - leader Muammar Gaddafi (August 23, 2011). in Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh (February 27, 2012).
During a period of regional unrest, some leaders announced their intention to step down at the end of their current terms. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir announced that he would not seek re-election in 2015. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced that he would not remain in office after 2014. Protests in Jordan also caused King Abdullah to dissolve the two governments.
Realizing the power of the organization through modern means of communication, the authorities of many countries where riots broke out imposed restrictions on the use global network Internet, right up to its shutdown.
The most important consequence of the events in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa was the changes concerning the increase in the level of rights and freedoms.
In addition, the leaders of the Arab countries, one after another, began to carry out their own reforms, in a number of countries (Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Tunisia) the government was overthrown or dismissed.
The economic consequences of the "Arab Spring" are mostly negative. The IMF has calculated the cost of the "Arab Spring": the losses of the main countries amounted to more than 55 billion dollars.
On January 1, 2012, the Deputy Secretary General of the Arab League for Economic Affairs, Mohammed al-Tawajiri, announced that direct financial losses due to the events of the "Arab Spring" alone to date amount to at least $75 billion.
The impact of the "Arab Spring" on the world economy was expressed in the growth of oil prices. Starting from January 31, 2011, there was an increase in world oil prices under futures contracts. Analysts then speculated that this was due to fears that the ongoing unrest could eventually engulf the entire Arab world. Due to events in Egypt, difficulties arose in the operation of the Suez Canal.
Particularly rapid growth in oil prices caused unrest in Libya. By February 23, 2011, they reached $100 per barrel, the highest price since October 2008. Libya announced that it was unable to fulfill a number of export contracts. Libyan ports were partially closed, the shipment of oil was practically stopped. The work of the Greenstream gas pipeline connecting Libya with Italy was also stopped.
At the time of the "Arab spring" in 2011, there was a peak of migration from the countries covered by it, mainly to the EU countries.
In 2010-2011 under the influence of the "Arab spring" in other countries of the world, protests were largely similar in nature.
« Arab spring” began with protest demonstrations that broke out in mid-December 2010 in Tunisia and in a matter of days led to the fall of the regime of President Ben Ali, who ruled the country alone for twenty years. Then came the turn of the Egyptian regime of Hosni Mubarak, who ruled the country for almost thirty years, followed by Libya, Yemen and Syria.
The upheavals that gripped the Middle East were largely an expression of the crisis that the Arab world experienced for several decades in a row. The upheavals were caused by the younger generation, the result of rapid population growth in the second half of the 20th century. In the early 1960s, the population of the Arab countries was 100 million people. At the beginning of 2011, during the Arab Spring, 400 million people lived in the Arab states, and by 2050 there may be 700 million. For a rapidly growing population, there were no resources to provide a decent lifestyle.
Context
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Atlantico 04.12.2015 The Arab Spring was received with undisguised joy around the world, in the hope that the youth in Tahrir Square and elsewhere would be able to overcome or leap over the abyss separating the Arab world from the Western countries and ensure economic prosperity and democratic order. This joy was joined by many Israelis, who argued that Israel should follow the regional process, not resist it, otherwise, they warned, Israel would be seen as misplaced on the map of a changing Middle East by supporting dictatorial regimes that with an iron fist oppressed peoples, and now they have been thrown into the dustbin of history.But it quickly became clear that this was not about the "Arab Spring", but about the "Islamic Winter". In many Arab countries, offshoots of the Muslim Brotherhood came to power, wanting to paint the entire Arab world in green color(the color of Islam, the color of the flag of the Muslim Brotherhood). In some countries, such as Egypt and Tunisia, at least partial stability has been achieved. This has not happened in other Arab states. There collapsed state institutions(initially, perhaps, standing on a weak or artificial foundation) and the society collapsed. As a result, Syria, Libya and Yemen have joined the growing list of failed states, which was previously added to Iraq, Libya and Somalia. In the summer of 2014, the “Arab Spring” and “Islamic Winter” were replaced by the “Daesh Summer”, and after the militants of the group captured northern Iraq and eastern Syria, it is customary to paint these areas on maps in black - the color of the banners of this organization. Daesh and similar movements emerged from the turmoil in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq and have been able to take advantage of the inability of the younger generation to lead the protests and the ensuing processes that they themselves instigated.
Israel was almost the only state that from the very beginning was suspicious of what was happening in neighboring countries, fearing that Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood would replace the usual relatively moderate regimes, as it happened at the beginning. But even in Israel, no one imagined that the result would be chaos and anarchy, the rise of radical jihadist groups like Daesh, and they would come close to the Israeli borders, in the absence of the containment capacity and balance of power that for many years ensured calm in the south and in the north. .
One way or another, the Middle East has changed. The old order has collapsed. To make matters worse, the Arab states and nations have been replaced by a world of ethnic groups, clans, tribes and radical Islamist movements that threaten to set all Arabs back hundreds of years.
Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher vocational education
"RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
AND PUBLIC SERVICE
under the PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION"
NORTHWESTERN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT
Faculty of International Relations
Direction (Specialty) international relations
Department of International Relations
COURSE WORK
on the topic of:
"Arab Spring" and the influence of intra-regional actors.
2nd year student
full-time learning
Grigoriev Nikita Alexandrovich
signature__________________
Work manager:
Deputy Head of the Department of International Processes of the Eurasian Region, NWIMU RANEPA, Lecturer, Candidate of Political Sciences
Naboka Arkady Vladimirovich
signature__________________
Saint Petersburg
Introduction. 3
1. "Arab spring" - causes and consequences. 5
2. Influence of intra-regional actors. 19
Conclusion. 34
References: 36
Introduction.
At the end of 2010 - beginning of 2011, mass protest movements swept the Arab world. Civil wars broke out in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, which led to a change in the leadership of the countries. In Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, Jordan, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain, Sudan, Lebanon, Kuwait
and Oman, there were wide anti-government demonstrations that led to the reform of the social political system these states.
In this course work, I would like to consider the processes that took place during the so-called "Arab Spring" in the region. I would like to note that the subject of this course work does not provide for the consideration of "conspiracy theories", which in the majority exist around such a "fertile" problem. In this term paper, it is necessary to give a qualitative analysis of the events of the "Arab Spring", as well as to show the degree of involvement of intra-regional actors, both in this process and political life the Arab world.
The choice of this topic is due to the degree of influence of the events of the "Arab spring" both on the region of the Greater Middle East and on the world community. In addition to the fact that this reformation process affected more than a dozen states on two continents, and also led to a change in political regimes and a profound reform of the political system of individual Muslim states, it has also remained one of the most discussed political events for the past three years.
The purpose of this course work is to reveal the essence of political changes that have affected the Greater Middle East, their prerequisites and prospects, as well as to assess the degree of involvement of intra-regional actors such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, etc. into these processes.
Based on this, in our opinion, this course work should be divided into two main parts;
the task of the first part is to consider the process of the Arab Spring itself as a process of political transformations in the territory of the Greater Middle East. Also, in this chapter, it is necessary to highlight the main prerequisites and reasons for the development of the "Arab Spring". For this, the works of such authors as E.Ya. Satanovsky, A.V. Korotaeva, B.V. Dolgov, J. Fallon, V. Sergeev and others.
in the second part of this term paper, in our opinion, it is worth characterizing the degree of involvement and interest in the events of the "Arab spring" of intra-regional actors, since it is impossible to deny their role in these events due to the struggle for political leadership in the region.
Arab Spring” - causes and consequences.
In this part of the course work, we will try to give a qualitative analysis of the events that took place in the Muslim world in 2011 and led to a series of unrest in the Islamic world, called the "Arab Spring", we will analyze the causes of these unrest and the prospects for further development of North Africa and the Middle East under the influence of a number of new trends generated by just the described events.
All the many reasons that gave rise to the crisis situation and spurred the formation of protest movements can be divided into two main types: economic and socio-political problems.
As the head of the Center for Global and Strategic Studies, Dr. economic sciences Leonid Leonidovich Fituni in his article “Economic Causes and Consequences of the Arab Spring”, “<…>the economy is invariably at the foundation of any revolution. Despite the fact that external interference in the current processes within the Arab countries is an indisputable and extremely obvious thing, the deep basis of the social explosion is just as indisputably the economy.
It should be noted here that the economic situation in these states was not as deplorable as the press paints it for us. So, for example, before the start of the global economic crisis, the growth in Egyptian GDP (according to the World Bank) was approximately 7% per year, declining only in 2009 to 4.6%.
As the author notes, “... in Tunisia in the same period, pre-crisis growth was less impressive, but on the whole more than satisfactory - an average of 5.5% per year. In 2009, the GDP growth rate was 3.4%. For comparison, we point out that in Saudi Arabia these figures were 3 and 0.6%, respectively, in Morocco 5.4 and 4.9%, in Libya 5.2 and 2.1%, in Lebanon 5.9 and 9.0 %, in Yemen 3.4 and 3.8%.
It follows from this that the economic indicators of Egypt and Tunisia were not only no worse, but also noticeably better than in some Arab states that survived the unrest of the "Arab Spring" less violently. Also of note is the fact that GDP growth rates in Egypt and Tunisia, since 1992, have been consistently higher than population growth (in Tunisia, economic growth was not so impressive, but only as a result of the fact that the population there increased at a slower pace, than in Egypt).
Moreover, as Fituni writes, “experts from such a solid structure as the United Nations Development Program generally portrayed Tunisia on the eve of the revolution as case in point success in human development and stood out among the top three “show cases” among developing countries” (he is the winner among middle-income countries). The UNDP Human Development Report 2010 summarizes the country's progress in the social and economic spheres: “Tunisia has achieved success in all three dimensions of the Human Development Index, with a major focus on education. The share of covered school education especially since 1991. A law on compulsory ten-year education was passed. Some progress has also been made in gender equality: 6 out of 10 university students are women. Annual per capita income has been around 3% for the past 40 years and has been linked to responsible fiscal policy and investment in transport and communications infrastructure.”
From the foregoing, we can conclude that, despite the stagnant nature of the political situation in the Arab world as a whole, against the background of other states of the region "<…>Tunisia and Egypt have been perhaps the most successful examples of combining economic modernization and diversification with modest yet visible political liberalization.”
The result of the successive steps taken by the "authoritarian leaders" in the field of liberalization of the economy on the Western model and the introduction of the norms and standards recommended by the IMF, the USA and the European Union, was the formation of a vast layer of the "middle class" in the country (it should be noted that the economy of Egypt and Tunisia is not based on the extraction of hydrocarbon resources).
However, despite the positive dynamics in the field of GDP growth and in the economy as a whole, the deep processes of the "Arab spring" in Egypt and Tunisia should be sought in the fundamental economic and socio-political problems of these states, which lie in the deep characteristics of the economic development of almost all countries. North Africa: population growth, unemployment, lack of suitable territories for resettlement, etc.
As Fituni notes, “... the indicated basic problems existed before the overthrown “tyrants” came to power, remained, despite all their efforts, with them and, most importantly, will not go anywhere under the new authorities. Persistence of insurmountable challenges even in the face of rapid and sustained economic growth recent years predetermined by the fundamental characteristics of North African economies and societies. Decades of colonialism and neo-colonial exploitation have played a significant role, but even they are not the main deterrents to development and the persistence of backwardness.
Most of the territory of all the Arab countries of North Africa without exception is a lifeless desert.
Before Rabat declared its sovereignty over the former Spanish Sahara, Morocco was the only exception to this rule (only 11% of the kingdom's territory was desert). Today, within the new (not universally recognized) actual borders, according to the FAO, deserts make up 78% of the country's area. In Tunisia - 51%, Algeria - 80%, Egypt - 98%, Libya - 99%.
It should be noted that in almost all the states of North Africa, the majority of the population is still concentrated in the countryside. Steady and rapid population growth with each new generation leads to a decrease in the average area of the plot, either creating hidden unemployment in the countryside, or pushing a (minor part) of unemployed citizens into the cities, where they are often unable to find work either.
In addition, the situation is aggravated by the age specificity of the structure of society in the region - the predominance of citizens under the age of 30 years. However, in Egypt, the problem of the dominance of young age groups in the population is more acute than in any North African country, with the exception of Algeria.
Over the 10 years that have passed between the last two population censuses in the ARE (1996-2006), the number of older people (over 45 years old) has tripled, and the number of children under 15 years old - 2.5 times. According to the data of the (last) census of 2006, 72,579 thousand people lived in the country, united in 17,265 thousand households. The average size of an Egyptian family (individual household) is 4.18 people. As of mid-2011, the population is estimated to have reached 82 million.
At the date of the census, 5476 thousand people lived in the country with higher education, i.e. about one in three families had a university degree holder. But at the same time, 16.8 million Egyptians remained illiterate. By the time the revolutionary events of 2011 began, the absolute number of the former had grown, according to demographers, by at least 10%, and the latter by 6%.
It should be noted that the theory, widespread at the initial stages of the “Arab Spring”, that the so-called youth hillock lies at the heart of the revolutions in North Africa (graphically, it looks like a “bulge” in the sex-age pyramid of certain age groups, namely groups of 15–30 years old) , is only partly confirmed statistically (see Fig. 1)7.
By the time of the revolution, such a "bulge" had indeed taken place in Tunisia, and also in Algeria (where no revolution took place). It was not in Libya, Egypt and Morocco, but at the same time, "revolutions" took place in the first two countries, but not in the westernmost monarchy of the Arab world.
Nevertheless, in our opinion, the facto “youth” should not be completely written off.
Youth is a fertile object for political manipulation by groups of society interested in unrest and political destabilization of society (youth was the driving force during speeches both in Tunisia and in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Kuwait and other states of North Africa and the Greater Middle East).
Sociologists invariably point out that this age group societies are characterized by: lack of life experience; maximalism in assessments and actions; “herd instinct”, expressed in an increased tendency to block in “brotherhoods”, to unite according to the principle “ours / not ours”; readiness, even with a threat to one's own well-being and life, to blindly follow the leader and mercilessly "smash the enemy to finish off."
It should also be taken into account that the majority of young people in North Africa, with the exception of the sparsely populated Tunisia and Libya, do not live in large cities, but in rural areas. Rural youth, as a rule, are brought up in traditional values, primarily religious ones. The latter circumstance, however, did not make them great supporters of the fallen secular authoritarian regimes.
Their opposition to the authorities was formed, first of all, by illegal and semi-legal Muslim organizations.
In Egypt for almost 70 years it was the Muslim Brotherhood, but in the last twenty years more radical groups, well funded by the Persian monarchies, began to compete with the Brothers.
It should also be noted the impact of economic liberalization on the situation in the countryside, which led to an increase in unemployment and migration of the population to big cities in search of jobs.
For example, in Egypt, despite the ongoing process of urbanization, approximately 57% of the population is employed in the agricultural sector of the economy. At the same time, almost the entire rural population is settled on a narrow strip of fertile land in the Nile Valley. The area of allotments is constantly decreasing due to the physical limitation of land suitable for cultivation and population growth.
Since the reign of Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt has managed to maintain a delicate balance with regard to population migration to large cities through a complex system of food subsidies for the urban population and subsidies and direct measures for agricultural producers.
As Fituni notes, “... from a“ monetary ”point of view, it was traditionally more profitable for medium and large farms to grow cotton and sell it to a reseller. Such a system that existed in the early years of the presidency of G.A. Nasser, looked, from a detached academic point of view, economically justified, but at the level of the country as a whole, it turned into a need to import food on an ever-increasing scale. At the same time, the unpredictability of the collection depending on the water level in the Nile, the constantly jumping world prices for cotton, the competition of other countries annually created uncertainty that the country would receive sufficient foreign exchange income for its monoculture.
Forced by Nasser, the system ordered farmers to grow certain crops, in particular grains, which guaranteed the "food component of the harvest." However, in the 1980s. Under President A. Sadat, the Egyptian government, in accordance with the recommendations and in close cooperation with USAID officials, launched a broad program of agricultural liberalization.
The task was set to limit state intervention (primarily by eliminating subsidies and state control in the field of agriculture), to encourage the development of a competitive market system based on private entrepreneurship and export-oriented growth. This policy was continued under H. Mubarak, when in the 1990s, Egypt entered into a number of agreements with the International Monetary Fund as part of structural adjustment programs.
A key component of the ongoing agrarian reform was new law about the earth. It deprived small peasants who had worked on plots for at least 40 years of their former preferential rights to land, and allowed large landowners to set rent payments based on market rates. State subsidies for fertilizers gradually disappeared. The latter began to be sold at market prices, which, together with the liberalization of the import of this product, turned Egypt into one of the largest importers of chemical fertilizers in the world. The cost of cultivation has risen, which has not been slow to affect the prices of food produced domestically. The system of compulsory production of certain crops was abolished.
In accordance with neoliberal views, the very concept of food security has changed. If earlier the emphasis was on maximizing the food needs of the country through domestic production, now the opinion has prevailed that the country should develop sectors of the economy that have comparative competitive advantages in the world market (for example, tourism), and the missing food should be purchased at the expense of excess income globally. competitive industries.
The result of this economic policy was the slow convergence of world prices for agricultural products with domestic prices (which were significantly lower than market prices before the reforms), which led, respectively, to an increase in discontent among the population and open anti-government protests in Egypt in 2008, partially suppressed by the government (Inflation reached 11% in April 2010. At the same time, the rise in food prices was much higher: in particular, prices for vegetables increased by an average of 45 percent).
These circumstances created a favorable environment in Egypt for anti-government demonstrations, coupled with the loss of tourism revenue.
However, the economic component was not the only reason for the emergence of the "Arab Spring".
It was also greatly influenced by the stagnation in the politics of individual states of North Africa and the Middle East.
As mentioned earlier, certain opposition groups in the territory of these states, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, were excluded from participation in the political administration of the state and used anti-government manifestations as grounds for overthrowing the existing regimes.
Also, one of the reasons for the development of the "Arab Spring" can be attributed to the inability (or unwillingness) of the governments of individual states to carry out reforms in various spheres of society in time.
In addition, the factor of "external influence" on the events of the "Arab spring" also played a huge role, but this will be discussed in detail in the second chapter of this course work.
Based on the foregoing, we can conclude that the causes of the "Arab Spring" should be sought not only in the "political stagnation" and "authoritarian regimes" of the states of North Africa and the Middle East, but also in a deep crisis in the economy, complicated by population growth, which ultimately led to an increase in youth unemployment in these states (in this context, the role of the economic liberalization policy pursued in individual states of the region, which ultimately led to an increase in unemployment, should also be emphasized).
The events of the "Arab spring", which began with the crisis in the economy, were used by individual political groups to achieve their goals in gaining power.
So, for example, as a result of the revolution in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood, which was under a government ban for a long time, came to power in the country, receiving most of its funding from Qatar, which was later displaced again with the participation of the army.
However, compared with other parties that have actively joined the struggle for power, the Brothers can be called "liberals from Islam." For example, the involvement of al-Qaeda fighters in civil conflicts in Libya and Syria, rumored to be receiving assistance from the rulers of Saudi Arabia (for example, the Jabat al-Nusra group in Syria), has become widespread in the press.
These radical Islamist groups, with active outside support (including from Western states), eventually managed to overthrow the "authoritarian regime" of Muammar Gadaffi in Libya and are fighting government forces in Syria.
However, the sad experience of Libya shows us that the perspective of the "Arab spring" is one - the complete destruction of the old regimes and the establishment of pro-Islamist-minded governments (and this is even at best).
The lack of a common opinion among representatives of the opposition forces regarding the future of their states leads to the sad consequences of a civil war, clan and religious genocide (as happened in Libya and is happening in Egypt and Syria, where religious minorities are persecuted).
The new government of the opposition failed to pacify the paramilitarist groups on the territory of Libya, which still raises concerns about the fate of the civilian population, which until then was brutally terrorized by the "despot" Gadaffi. The destabilization of the situation in Libya subsequently led to a civil war in Mali. After the overthrow of Gaddafi, the huge Libyan arms depots were seized by the Tuareg, who served as part of his security forces. They tried to create an independent Tuareg state, Azawad, in northern Mali. These nationalists defeated the Malian army, but then they themselves were defeated by their former ally, the Islamists, who seek to turn Mali as a whole into an Islamic state. To prevent this, France resorted to military intervention. However, this only led to the dispersion of militants throughout the Sahel, increasing violence and instability from Mauritania to Chad.
So it should be said that the activities of extremist religious groups have recently intensified in Tunisia. As A.B. Podtserob in the article “Tunisia: the Salafi threat”, “... at the end of March 2012, a demonstration was held in the capital of the country under the slogans “The people demand the establishment of an Islamic state” and “Those who love God love Sharia”, in which about 10 thousand . Human. In the summer, attacks began on art galleries and bars, which Salafis believe are insulting establishments, and at the final stage of the cultural festival in Bizerte, 200 Salafis armed with knives and sticks attacked the audience, seriously injuring five people. Attempts to beat foreign tourists, especially women dressed in T-shirts and shorts, have become more frequent. On September 14, 2012, Islamists attacked the US embassy, and four people died during clashes with police. The day after the religious holiday of Eid al-Adha, extremists tried to organize a pogrom of shops selling alcohol in Manoub, and in response to the detention of several attackers, they attacked two posts on September 30 National Guard. As a result, two Salafis were killed, including the imam of the local mosque, Eiman Amduni. Nasr ad-Din Alvi, who was appointed imam in his place, immediately called on the believers to jihad against the infidels and against the An-Nahda Movement, which, according to him, is following "the orders of Washington." In some duars and small settlements integrists, taking advantage of the disorganization of law enforcement agencies, are trying to establish their power. So, in the village of Sejnan, located near Bizerte, they proclaimed an Islamic emirate. At the same time, extremists beat men who are considered not real Muslims, intimidate women who do not wear a hijab, introduced a ban on the sale of alcohol, watching television, celebrating weddings, and closed women's hairdressers.
I would also like to note the inconsistency in the policy pursued by Western states in relation to the so-called "authoritarian regimes" in the suppression of demonstrations. When uprisings are suppressed by dictators disloyal to the West like Muammar Gadaffi, Bashar Assad, etc., then in the media this is called the genocide of the population and the suppression of democratic movements (by the way, the pro-Islamist governments that came to power as a result of coups do not at all intend to build a pro-Western version democracy in their states, but declare their intention to introduce Sharia norms in these territories). When the government troops in Saudi Arabia brutally suppress the actions of the Shiites in the eastern regions of the state, then this fact is usually ignored.
It should also be noted the role of the media in the events of the "Arab spring". As A.B. Podtserob in the article “Arab Troubles: the Role of Propaganda and Modern Information Technologies”: “... Satellite television played a significant role in shaping the prerequisites for mass demonstrations. TV programs introduced into the public consciousness ideas about the luxurious life that, de, the population of Western countries enjoys. The result was not long in coming. The masses of millions of young people who compared their own poverty with the prosperity of Western states, a gap arose between the expectations of well-being and reality ... ”; “... The main role in the propaganda war is given to satellite television that creates stereotypes and introduces them into the mass consciousness. The leading place in this respect belongs to Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya, whose broadcasts are in Arabic and English, designed to generate sympathy for the rebels, have become the most important source of information for both the Arab countries and the Western world. The effectiveness of TV is predetermined, firstly, by its wide distribution and, secondly, by the influence of the visual range, which imposes a “picture” on the viewer, leaving no time to analyze the information that falls upon him. With this in mind, we can only agree with the opinion of A. Jungerr, professor at the University of Bamberg, that “if social networks mobilized people for protest actions and taking to the streets, then satellite electronic media became the real “structures” that “moved” these revolutions ... ".
The prospects for North Africa and the Middle East, in the event of the victory of the "Arab spring" can only be described as vague. The absence of a generally recognized political leader, the victory of the opposition in the region, which does not have a common opinion on the development strategy of this region, except for the total replacement of secular regimes by religious ones, all this may well lead to economic and political stagnation and chaos within the region, which will give rise to more more victims.
The term "Arab Spring" has been widely used in the media since the end of 2010. Since then, as they say, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge. Events are rapidly gaining momentum. The events of the Arab world were forgotten a little. Ukraine has recently occupied the minds of citizens. Let's update our knowledge and remember what the Arab Spring was connected with, what consequences it led to. Moreover, events still seriously affect the situation of peoples in this region.
Countries - participants or victims
You know, the Arab Spring is not an ordinary event, if I may say so. On the one side? The media presented it to us as a series of demonstrations that led in some cases to government coups.
On the other hand, some of the latest technologies were clearly used there. It is believed that the countries of the Arab Spring have become a testing ground for honing methods of influencing large groups of people. In total, the peoples of eighteen countries were affected. Among them, the most famous are the events in Egypt and Libya, Syria and Tunisia. These states still cannot "come to their senses". The thing is that seemingly harmless speeches led to the breakdown of the state mechanism. In some cases, there was a change of political regime. In itself, this is not yet a cause for chaos. But after the changes, as if from a magic snuffbox, opposition appeared everywhere, miraculously prepared and armed. It can be said that the Arab Spring is a method of bringing a hot conflict into a calm and prosperous state.
Flip mechanism
Of course, it was quite difficult for local residents to understand the essence of the “experiment” that was carried out on them. Arab countries are famous for the ardor of their population. This is what the puppeteers, as they are commonly called, took advantage of. Ideas that the country lacks democracy were introduced into society in an innovative way. Social networks were used. Has the number of citizens fascinated by such thoughts increased? like a snowball. Due to the fact that information was disseminated via the Internet, the citizens were given the illusion of some kind of game, and not real action. That is, few people realized that their joint protest actions could lead to a terrible tragedy. Let's look at the example of Syria. This state is still experiencing the consequences of the Arab Spring. Moreover, the outcome of events is not as clear as we would like. The fight there is very tough.
Syria
On the example of this country, one can see where the problems that caused the emergence of popular discontent were concentrated. The reasons behind the Arab Spring are practically purely economic. Syria, like most neighboring countries, has developed quite dynamically. Its GDP increased, democratic processes led to the normal coexistence of peoples of different religious denominations. Naturally, there were some problems. Thus, the educated secular intelligentsia, namely, it became the main protest force, the state seemed too strict, illiberal. Namely, they did not like the lack of social lifts, the dependence of the economy on oil production, the high level of unemployment that arose as a result of a serious outflow of the rural population to the cities. In addition, the Arab countries at that time lagged far behind the West (and now the East) in terms of technological development.
It should be noted that the first Protestants had no radical intentions. They organized their demonstrations and rallies within the framework of democratic procedures. The technologists of the "revolution" needed only a crowd. The rest, as it turned out later, is a matter of technology.
Translation of protests into military clashes
The whole world now knows the method of organizing hot confrontations. This is a lot of talk in our society, and in any country. During the period of mass action, "unknown snipers" appear on the arena of action. They open fire to kill. They don't care who they kill. The main thing is that there were victims. Their presence causes heat among people, already excited by the mass protest. The media immediately join in, accusing the authorities of the murder with all their voices. People lose their bearings, succumb to general hysteria. “Certain forces” immediately appear, offering to engage in armed struggle with the “bloody tyrant”. Needless to say, at this moment, prepared militants appear on the arena of events, defending their own views. In the Arab world, radical Islamists acted in their role. In Syria, where secular power has won, they are raising a mass of people under the slogans of "the correct order of the world."
Overthrow of the government
By itself, the described scenario does not necessarily lead to a change of power. A strong government will simply disperse the hooligans that the speakers are at the very beginning of events. To prevent this from happening, the world community is joining. It, as a rule, in the person of the ambassadors of the countries of the collective West, indicates to the authorities the need to refrain from an armed reaction to speeches. But the excitement does not subside. People are constantly kept in an excited state by information stuffing through the media and social networks. The death of people leads to the fact that the government is forced to give power to the opposition. This happened, for example, in Libya. This previously flourishing country has been turned into a territory without strong power, with a starving population. Civil wars in Libya have not stopped for the fourth year. They began with the assassination of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Government troops are trying to contain the onslaught of Islamist radicals, including ISIS.
Egyptian events
When considering the Arab events, it is striking that not everything goes so smoothly with the organizers. The coup in Egypt is clearly beyond the plan of those who needed chaos in this territory. The fact is that Islamists ruled in this country until 2013. By the way, they were elected democratically. The population in Egypt is heterogeneous. Most voters are illiterate and obey Sharia law. However, the forcible elevation of Muslim traditions to the rank state law did not like the educated part of this country. In 2013, a coup d'état took place here. Power was seized by representatives of the military elite, headed by General Al-Sisi. In the fall of 2014, he was elected president of the country by popular vote.
Russia and the Arab Spring
As a member of the UN Security Council, the Russian Federation could not but react to events. Over the years, Russia has had to endure both deceit and a rise in the diplomatic field. It all started with Libya. After the start of the civil war in this country, Western partners decided to intervene there. They proposed a resolution of the Security Council, which declared an unmanned zone over the named territory. The Russian Federation supported this project. However, the partners used the document for their own, previously undeclared purposes. Libya was heavily bombed. The population of this country is still striving to leave its territory. There is simply no food, no opportunity to earn money. When the Arab Spring reached Syria, the Russian Federation showed firmness. The United States insisted on launching a military operation in that country under the pretext of having chemical weapons. The President of the Russian Federation proposed to organize an international commission to solve this problem, without needless sacrifices. The issue has been resolved.
Who benefits from the wave of revolutions?
Here we come to the most important issue. Countries are in ruins. In the Middle East there are ongoing wars, as they say, all against all. It has already been said that coups had organizers. What is their purpose? Who had the idea to plunge a huge number of people into hopeless and hopeless poverty and horror? Here it is necessary to return to economic questions. The fact is that all these states are located in oil-bearing territories. The extraction of black gold forms the basis of their economy. But why buy when you can just steal?
The inviolability of the petrodollar
This is how our Western partners decided. For example, Muammar Gaddafi offered oil-producing countries to get out of dollar dependence, that is, to trade resources for a different currency. For this he paid. Uncle Sam didn't like that idea. After all, the basis of the US welfare is the dollar, which is directly linked to oil. In the world, it was customary to conduct all transactions for black gold in this currency. In simple terms, the US gets a double benefit from every deal. After all, every barrel paid for in dollars brings profit to the hegemon's budget. No matter what Western experts say, they do not answer questions about the redistribution of profits from oil production in the regions captured by the Islamists. According to some reports, the price of a smuggled barrel is three times lower than the exchange one.
Lessons from the Arab Spring
This topic does not leave the media, it is constantly studied and discussed by experts in various fields. In short, no country with natural resources can feel safe. The manual, as time has shown, works in any region, regardless of the mentality. The organizer of the riots competently use the contradictions existing in society. On their basis, they conduct tough comprehensive propaganda. People are encouraged to take to the streets to demand change from the authorities. Each case has its own nuances. But this is already a matter of technique, to come up with appropriate slogans, to organize radical groups.
There are prerequisites in any society. But since the method of building up the people is revealed, it is necessary to come up with ways to counteract. Of course, the best option would be to build an ideal state. But since this is not yet possible, it is necessary to carry out close, constant work with the population in order to introduce patriotism, to identify manifestations of extremism. Countries with strong power constantly resist outside interference in their affairs. For example, in Turkey in 2014, the work of some social networks spreading extremist ideas.
What will happen to the countries of the Middle East?
A huge unflagging war center is a wound on the planet. Conflicts affect all countries to one degree or another. Of course, problems need to be addressed. But, here the interests of the main political players come into conflict. For example, Barack Obama declares ISIS the main enemy of the States. At the same time, it is no secret that this organization is financed from the USA. In addition, there are other contradictions in the Middle East. The borders of countries are established without taking into account the interests of the peoples living in this territory. Sunnis and Shiites live in different countries. All of them aspire to create their own state. This is the origin of armed struggle. Western partners can only finance and arm the most radical of them. And in the territory where there is neither work nor food, people have to go to serve in armed illegal formations. They need to feed their families. This is where the endless problem comes in. Apparently, the solution is to stop funding. Otherwise, the war will never end in this long-suffering territory. As they say, the hegemon needs controlled chaos, he does not mind the dollars for it.
Surgut State University
Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra
Faculty of Social Technologies
Department of Political Science
Arab spring. Russian version
Student 0314 gr. II course
Kolomiets A.I.
Scientific director
d. polit. n., professor
Martynov M.Yu.
Surgut 2012
Introduction
Chapter 1 Causes and Background of the Arab Spring
2 Arab political culture
Chapter 2. Events and facts
1 Historical parallels and modernity
3 Dynamics and perspectives
Conclusion
Bibliography
arab spring demonstration east
Introduction
Relevance: Despite the calendar winter, at the beginning of the year, the "Arab Spring" came - this is the name given to the wave of protests and demonstrations in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. The Arab revolutions have changed the identity of citizens around the world, becoming an example for such protest phenomena as the Occupy Wall Street movement and the Moscow rallies.
Arab revolts are put on a par with such turning points as the revolution of 1917 and the liberation from colonial dependence of the peoples of the third world after the Second World War. People who have lived under dictatorial regimes for the last 30-40 years are tired. The Arab Spring has shown how important and responsible is the role of the latest information technologies - the Internet, social networks, through which people in many countries were called to oppose "dictatorial regimes". These information technologies play a decisive role in modern politics and in modern international relations. Political arbitrariness and the restriction of media freedom by the authorities contributed to the spread of the ideas of Islamic fundamentalism not only among the poorest strata, but also among parts of the middle class. Corruption of power became a significant cause of mass discontent. The first of these states was Tunisia, which inspired a number of other Arab states with the same problems to do the same.
Degree of development: Numerous works in foreign and domestic literature are devoted to the problem of the Arab Spring. It is believed that this is due to the fact that a number of countries, such as Great Britain, France, the United States of America, still maintain neo-colonialist interests in a number of Muslim regions. The causes and facts of the Arab revolutions are considered in the books and works of such authors as Tahara Ben Yelloun, A. Vasiliev, A. Korotaev, A. Burov. In their works, they consider the emergence of revolutions in states, who was behind it, what role information technology played, whether there is a scenario for the Arab uprisings, and what are the prospects for the countries of the Arab world.
Purpose: analysis of the causes and events occurring during the Arab Spring.
)Reveal the causes of the Arab revolutions )Describe events and facts )To study the features of Arab political culture )Analyze the dynamics and prospects for the development of events Object of study: The Arab Spring as a phenomenon of modern international politics Subject of study: The Arab Spring as a factor in the destabilization of the current political situation in the world Research method: analysis of scientific literature Structure: The course work consists of an introduction, two chapters, the first chapter consists of two paragraphs, the second chapter of three paragraphs, a conclusion and a list of references. Chapter 1 Causes and Background of the Arab Spring 1 Social roots of the Arab Spring From January 25 to February 11 last year, mass riots continued in Egypt. The number of their participants was either reduced to a hundred thousand people, or increased to a million. The masses rose up in revolt - from Alexandria to Asyut and from Mansura to the Sinai Peninsula. "In general, it is not surprising that the Mubarak administration "missed" the social explosion. After all, the statistics claimed that the country is developing very successfully." The economy is growing at a good pace (even in crisis years). The levels of poverty and inequality are among the most prosperous in the third world. World food prices are rising, but the government is taking serious steps to mitigate the impact on the poorest. The unemployment rate is lower than in many fairly prosperous countries of the world and has recently been declining somewhat, which is happening against the backdrop of a slowdown in population growth. The common demand was the departure of President Mubarak, who ruled for 32 years. In Egypt and Libya, the protests were preceded by escalating disputes over succession to power. Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's attempts to make his son Gamal the heir to the throne have caused discontent in various parts of the Egyptian power structure, and especially among the military. In Libya, rival factions arose around the brothers Seif al-Islam Gaddafi and Mutassim Gaddafi, who claimed to be the heirs of their father's power, with the elder Gaddafi, in turn, pitting these factions. The growth of corruption also played a role. At some point, the predation of the leader and his entourage ceases to seem tolerable. In good times, a certain level of corruption can be overlooked by people. However, the economic crisis of recent years has not spared the Middle East, especially Egypt and Tunisia. Clan capitalism blocked opportunities for members of the middle class. 2 Arab political culture What is happening in the Arab East gives rise to several assumptions: ) unrest and unrest, in some cases developing into armed struggle, have purely internal prerequisites, and their coincidence both in time and in a number of Arab countries is an accident; ) there is a more general systemic crisis in an important segment of international relations - the model of state relations; ) essential in what is happening it acquires an external factor that gives all revolutions such a resemblance; ) this is not a crisis of the system government controlled and not about a regional problem, but about one of the stages of "rebooting" the system of international relations at the global level. Massive political unrest in the first half of 2010 caused a relatively "peaceful fall" of the authoritarian regimes of "irremovable presidents": Ben Ali in Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Abdullah Salih in Yemen. Similar forms of public protest threatened the existence of regimes of sole power in Jordan, Algeria, Syria, and Bahrain. But in Libya, events went according to a different scenario. The armed confrontation between the regular army units loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and the opposition supported by NATO forces pushed Libya to the abyss of civil war. In essence, in all the above countries, events have developed and continue to develop according to identical scenarios, the essence of which ultimately boils down to one thing: to overthrow the existing political system. The police and security forces meant to maintain order are unable to cope with the mass protests and either do nothing or go over to the side of the protesters. There comes a collapse, paralysis of power, which is immediately used by the opposition forces fighting for political influence in the country. The army, for the time being, does not interfere in the political struggle, but rather plays the role of an observer or arbiter. It is now very convenient to launch turmoil using mobile communications and the Internet. However, the mechanisms for mobilizing people within the framework of the turmoil are also well-established at the traditional communicative level. Although the Qur'an condemns turmoil, there are many reasons to believe that in the Arab world, in the foreseeable future, the election campaign and the actions of opposition forces will fit into the pattern of turmoil. Political stability will largely depend on the ability of the authorities to cope with this traditional form of protest, transferred from the past to the new conditions of the proto-global world, where a universal global ethics has not yet been formed. But in the future, the world community - the human ecumene - will be guided by it, and not by behind-the-scenes norms. Chapter 2. Events and facts 1 Historical parallels and modernity The phrase "Arab spring", which began to be called the turbulent socio-political processes and changes in North Africa and the countries of the Middle East, is intended, of course, not so much to designate the calendar dates of what is happening as to be associated with the process of awakening and renewal. Structurally, the term is neither new nor original. It is a reminiscent allusion to similar events in 1848 in Europe - the bourgeois-democratic revolutions, which received the name "spring of peoples" in historiography. It is not only the external resemblance that is meant. What is happening today in the Arab world can be of the same fundamental importance for the formation of a new balance of social forces in it and the transition to new types of relations, as the "spring of peoples" for Europe. Comparative analysis gives grounds to put forward a hypothesis that the current Arab Spring is the result of a crisis connection in Arab societies at the turn of the millennium of transitions of three types: economic, demographic and ideological. )Economic transition. It is expressed in the qualitative transformation of the Arab economies in the period 1990-2010, associated with their forced modernization and adaptation to world economic trends (globalization, integration, liberalization, technologization, changes in the balance of power in the world economy). The domestic economic situation of the Arab countries has become more than ever before dependent on the world market. The economic transition has affected, in particular, the general increase in the living standards of the Arab population, social mobility and the growth of material and spiritual demands. )Most Arab countries are entering the so-called third phase of the demographic transition. At the same time, there is a real threat that they will find themselves in a demographic trap. In many, the modernization processes have led to a noticeable drop in the birth rate and a slowdown in population growth. In Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, the fertility rate has fallen by more than 40% compared to pre-transition levels. Since this trend is only 10-15 years old, and the average life expectancy in the region has increased to 70 years, mortality has hardly increased in most countries. Only the proportion of children up to about 12 years of age began to decline. At the same time, huge masses of young people aged 15-30 have entered an active life and quantitatively dominate society. More than 60% of the Arab population is under 30 years old. Unemployment is extremely high among young people, social prospects for many are limited or uncertain at best, which leads to political discontent and protest moods. Specific changes in demographic trends have led to social alienation and radicalization of some young people, a desire to change the existing social paradigm. )The ideological transition in the Arab countries follows from the previous two and is manifested in the breaking of the traditional and broad development of the individualistically oriented system of values and the corresponding change in the norms of behavior, including demographic and social. It is associated with fundamental changes within Arab societies: both with the endogenous characteristics of their development (economic conditions, demographic trends, the growth of literacy and self-awareness of the wider population, for whom the scope of social and economic opportunities provided by the existing structure of society is already narrow), and with external influences on the situation within Arab societies. There is a significant increase in the degree of freedom both in the choice of individual goals and the means to achieve them, not excluding the destruction of traditional foundations and the violent change of power. On the eve of the Arab Spring, the region posted the best sustained economic growth in three decades, both in the oil-rich countries and in the oil-poor ones. While maintaining very significant inter-country differences, the economies of all Arab states without exception have made significant progress along the path of modernization and growth over the past quarter century. In all countries, there has been an improvement in the situation with the real incomes of the population, food security, medical care, and access to education. Of course, there have been more impressive growths elsewhere in the world, but the Arab region has been ahead of East Asia on a range of quality of life indicators, and ahead of South Asia and Sub-Africa in all respects. 2 Appearance and reality The Arab world from the very beginning of 2011 has set in motion. The events in all the countries of Arab Africa and Yemen without exception, as well as their echoes in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Bahrain attracted the attention of the international community. It seems, however, that a kind of socio-political upsurge in northern Africa and in a number of countries in the Middle East cannot be considered not the work of the Islamists, nor revolutions in the true sense of the word. A revolution is a victorious upheaval that fundamentally changes, if not the social, then at least the political system of the country. In none of the Arab countries captured by the unrest, there is no talk of changing the social, or even the political system. With a big stretch, the personal changes in the leadership that took place there can be called "semi-revolutions", rather even "under-revolutions". All these events were of a pronounced political nature, took place under secular slogans, and aimed not so much at social as at personal changes. Islamists, if they participated in them, then not as leaders or initiators, but only in the role of fellow travelers, who, most likely, did not try too much, to "light up" so as not to give rise to repressions. Islam is generally a rather politicized religion, officially opposing usurious interest and for social justice, since, according to the principle of "saadaq", a wealthy Muslim is obliged to help a poor co-religionist. Therefore, often in our days, especially after the collapse of the USSR and the compromise of the world communist movement associated with it, Islam becomes the banner of revolutionary rebels who dream of equality and reorganization of the world, and not only in the East. There is no consensus in the world about the relationship between globalization and political Islam. Some researchers, interpreting globalization as a normal process of assimilation by the East of the technical achievements of the West, emphasize the adaptation of the Islamists to this process and their use of it in their own interests. Others believe that in reality the Islamists are waging an uncompromising war against the West, rejecting any kind of "Westernization". In fact, both take place. Globalization wins back from Islamism in the East only some positions in the sphere of economy and the latest technologies(including the military), but meets fierce resistance in the sphere of politics, ideology and spiritual life. Perceiving it as a continuation of the thousand-year-old expansion of the West, encroaching on their identity and religion, Muslims support Islamists for the most part, as defenders of their faith, way of life, mores, customs and worldview. This is facilitated by the tradition of confrontation between Islam and Christianity in the era of Arab conquests, crusades, corsairry and colonialism. In addition, today globalization in the eyes of Muslims is the main cause of economic and social difficulties, especially the impoverishment of huge masses of urban and rural marginals, whose share in many countries of the East, primarily Muslim, exceeds 40%. And they are the main social pillar of political (from Senegal to the Philippines) Islam, which promises to solve all problems by creating a "truly" Islamic state with the Koran as a constitution. This movement is also strengthened by the many millions of Muslim diasporas in the West, which are for the Islamists a source of financial resources, as well as political, social, organizational and technical experience. The factor of joining the Islamists (not for religious, but for political reasons) by a part of the intellectual elite of the Muslim world, including those educated in the universities of the West, is also important. The socio-political processes caused by the "Arab spring" of 2011-2012 are in constant dynamics. This stage can be defined as a transitional one. It is characterized by the destruction of the old power structures and the promotion of political Islam movements to the forefront of the socio-political life. Two clearly visible various types socio-political changes: ) under the influence of mainly internal factors (Tunisia, Egypt), ) as a result of direct interference from outside and attempts to use the discontent and protest of certain social groups to achieve their political goals by external actors (as happened in Libya and is happening in Syria). As the parliamentary elections in Tunisia, which are scheduled for March 2013, approach, contradictions are growing in the ruling coalition. A manifestation of the internal crisis was the criticism of Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali at the congress of the presidential party KZR. In addition to claims about the economic course, he was accused of extradition at the request of the current leadership of Libya, former Prime Minister of the Libyan Jamahiriya Al-Mahmoudi. This step by Jebali was apparently dictated by economic considerations, since Tunisia depends on energy supplies from Libya. The members of the coalition also disagree on the definition of a foreign policy course that could stimulate the future economic development of the country. Marzouki is a supporter of focusing on the traditional partners of Tunisia, primarily the European Union. Jebali proposes to diversify foreign policy and focus on the Sunni monarchies of the Gulf (in particular, Qatar). Another point of disagreement is the attitude towards the Salafists, who have recently been increasing their influence in the country. There have been cases of Salafi groups destroying government buildings, as well as bars and hotels in resort towns. In the summer of 2012, in the capital of Tunisia, there were demonstrations by Salafi supporters demanding the introduction of Sharia law. These demonstrations were welcomed by Al-Qaeda leader Al-Qaeda leader Al-Zawahiri, calling for the creation of a "genuine Islamic state" in Tunisia. In September, massive anti-American protests linked to the Internet and screening of the film "Innocence of Muslims" in the United States erupted into violent clashes with police and led to the deaths of several participants. The demonstrations were led by sheikhs of Salafi movements. Islamization is causing a split in Tunisian society, as evidenced by the protest demonstrations of those who see the strengthening of the role of Islam as an attack on democratic rights won under the first president of independent Tunisia, Habib Bourguiba. Such demonstrations, in particular, were carried out by supporters of the opposition Call Party, led by Al-Beji Qaid Al-Sebsi, an associate of Bourguiba and a former prime minister. The protesters opposed some of the provisions of the draft new constitution, which, in their opinion, infringe on the rights of women. As for the future state structure of the country, Jebali is a supporter of a parliamentary republic, which at the moment provides Nahda with all the power in the country. Marzouki and Ben Jafar seek to find a form of political organization that retains a number of serious powers in the president and gives them a chance to stay in power. In Egypt, after the collapse of the regime of President Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood became the most organized and influential political force. They position themselves as moderate Islamists whose political program proclaims general democratic goals. On the eve of the first free parliamentary elections in November 2011, the "Brothers" created an election coalition - "Democratic Alliance for Egypt". Along with the Freedom and Justice Party (the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood) and others professing political Islam (for example, the Reform and Revival Party), it also included liberal democratic and leftist parties. Among them are "Tomorrow of the Revolution", "Workers' Party", "Liberal Party", "Arab Socialist Egypt", "Dignity". Moreover, the party "Dignity" ("Karama") is headed by Hamden Sabahi, the oldest follower of the Nasserist and leftist ideology. The goals of this party, reflected in its program, are social justice, as well as the restoration of the leading role of Egypt in the Arab-Muslim world. As a result of the presidential elections held in May-June 2012 (13 candidates participated), Mohammed Morsi, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, chairman of the Freedom and Justice Party, won. In foreign policy, Morsi remains focused on rapprochement with the United States, as well as with the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. This is evidenced by his first visits - to Saudi Arabia and the United States, as well as a speech at a fairly high international forum - the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement (Iran, August 2012), where Morsi sharply criticized the Syrian president, calling his regime "illegitimate", in fact, in solidarity with the position of the West and the countries of the Persian Gulf. During his visit to the US, he, in particular, stated that he "has no problems with the peace treaty with Israel" concluded in 1979, that is, he does not intend to revise it. In Egypt's domestic policy, Islamic values are beginning to play an increasingly important role - as (to one degree or another) in all countries of the victorious "Arab Spring". In matters of public life, Morsi continues consultations with the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood. An important point that causes criticism of the president and an active discussion in the Egyptian social and political circles is the development of a draft of a new constitution. According to Morsi's statement, the draft constitution should be completed by December 12, 2012. Many points of the draft reflect Islamist ideology. This causes sharp criticism of opposition parties and movements against Morsi. In Libya, the protest demonstrations that began in mid-February 2011 against the 42-year rule of Muammar Gaddafi soon turned into an armed uprising, actively supported by a naval blockade and NATO airstrikes. Members of the Gaddafi family, in turn, filed a lawsuit against NATO in the International Criminal Court, accusing the alliance of killing M. Gaddafi, which they qualify as a "crime against humanity." Nevertheless, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen called the operation in Libya "one of the most successful in the history of NATO" and said that this organization "will continue to provide assistance to the new Libyan authorities." Currently new government unable to fully control the situation in the country, despite the election of parliament. In Libya, clashes continue both between Gaddafi's supporters and the authorities, and between armed formations of various clan and tribal groups. Many of the "rebels" who fought against Gaddafi profess radical Islamism. After the fall of the regime, hundreds of radical Islamists were released from Libyan prisons, including members of groups close to al-Qaeda. It is noteworthy that during their stay in prisons, their interrogations were often carried out jointly by the Libyan special services and the CIA, with which Gaddafi's security service actively cooperated in the fight against "international terrorism". Since March 2011, a civil conflict has been going on in Syria. On the one hand, it is dominated by the ruling elite under the leadership of President Bashar al-Assad, who is completely loyal to law enforcement agencies and the army. The president is actively or passively supported by a large part of the population of Syria (according to various sources, from 60% to 75%). On the other hand, there are armed opposition groups, mainly represented by radical Islamists, many of whom are mercenaries from Arab-Muslim countries and the Muslim diaspora in Europe, including al-Qaeda militants. The monarchies of the Persian Gulf, Turkey and the leading NATO countries provide active assistance in their preparation, financing and armament. Conclusion Thus, we can say that the Middle East events (revolution, unrest, unrest) are of a large-scale nature, reflecting: )Searching for contours of ideocratic societies. )Society is becoming more and more complex, it is not reducible only to some simple one-dimensional measurements and requires a different system management than the elites with their corruption and closeness. )The unipolar world is losing its resource potential, because it does not meet the dynamics of modern processes )Rapid demographic growth, and, consequently, the emergence of a significant youth stratum cannot for a long time get along with obsolete, outdated political structures. )5) The Internet space creates a new field for social technologies, the technology of "mediated virtual aggression" appears. )Traditional international institutions have lost their former importance. And also an important result is that the rebels managed to achieve the overthrow of the three largest dictators. Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was forced to flee to Saudi Arabia under pressure from a popular uprising. Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak resigned and was later taken into custody and put on trial. Now he is threatened the death penalty. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who almost died in a shelling on the territory of his own residence, refused to resign for a long time, but in November he nevertheless signed a plan developed by the leaders of the Persian Gulf countries, which implies the transfer of powers to Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the implementation of early elections heads of state. The most dramatic was the fate of the leader of the Libyan Jamahiriya, Muammar Gaddafi. In late October, during the storming of his hometown of Sirte by the armed opposition and NATO aircraft, he was captured and died the same day - either from injuries received as a result of the bombing, or from a direct shot in the head by one of the rebels. The leaders of Algeria, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain, Oman and a number of other countries in the region, also engulfed in mass anti-government protests, managed to hold on to power, but had to comply with some of the political and socio-economic demands of the opposition. Concessions and promises to reform did not help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. As long as he remains in power, however, the ring around him shrinks. The result of the "Arab Spring" was an increase in the risk premium in oil prices, which eventually led to a record cost of energy - up to $126 per barrel of oil. The role of Russia is growing, which is becoming a key link in resolving the Syrian crisis. Moscow declares the inadmissibility of armed foreign intervention and the repetition of the "Libyan scenario" in Syria. 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