Military conflict in Donbass: key dates and facts. DPR announced the resumption of full-scale hostilities When will hostilities begin in the Donbass
On the morning of January 31, it became known that DPR intelligence managed to intercept data on the number of soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who had died over the previous two days. According to the Deputy Commander of the DPR Operational Command Eduard Basurin, the real losses of the Ukrainian security forces amounted to 78 people. Such figures are contained in a secret report by the Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Viktor Muzhenko, who came into the possession of the DPR intelligence.
« According to the materials we have, in morgues and military medical institutions Ukraine are: the morgue in the city of Selidovo - 29 bodies, the morgue of the city of Krasnoarmeysk - 41 bodies, the military hospital in Chasov Yar - 60 wounded, the 66th military medical hospital "New Labor" - eight dead and 14 wounded", - Eduard Basurin told reporters.
Note that the Armed Forces of Ukraine themselves officially recognized the death of 10 of their servicemen over the past two days, reporting the destruction of "15 militants."
During the day of January 31, the situation was heating up on almost the entire front line in the DPR. The most fierce battles took place in the Mariupol direction, where the Ukrainian security forces twice tried to go on the offensive, as a result of which, according to sources in the DPR Ministry of Defense, they lost only 27 people killed.
Fighting is also going on to the north - near Avdiivka. Information has appeared on the Web that the DPR units have launched a counteroffensive, having achieved significant success.
« About Avdiivka. The information that the militias entrenched themselves on the outskirts of the city is not yet true (reports that some positions of the DPR were left in this area are also invalid). On the outskirts of Avdiivka, there is the strongest fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the entire front line; it is simply impossible to break through it in a day. However, I can say that our actions in this area are currently more than successful (this is not propaganda, this is a fact). There are opportunities and conditions for our successful progress, at least we hope so”, - said Moscow volunteer Alexander Zhuchkovsky, who helps the DPR units, on social networks.
What is happening near Avdiivka is somewhat reminiscent of the events of two years ago during the "Debaltsevo cauldron". Then the Armed Forces of Ukraine with massive shelling also provoked a counteroffensive of the militias.
The Kyiv regime is now struggling to present the situation in Avdiivka as a humanitarian catastrophe. It is reported that from this city, where about 16 thousand people now live, it is planned to take out most of the population. The fact that the city is de-energized during frosts, Kyiv, of course, blames the "militants of the DNR". However, here is how, for example, a resident of Donetsk Sergey Seleznev characterizes the situation:
« The point here is that Avdiivka is supplied with electricity from the territory of the DPR. The two power lines supplying Avdiivka and the coking plant clearly run along the front line. When they start shooting, they are cut off. Now Poroshenko is making some loud demarches, but in early December, in October, in July there was a similar situation - they cut off power lines, de-energized the plant. Then they fixed it - everything worked. But just earlier, the shooting stopped, and in a few hours the lines were restored. And now the task is to leave people without electricity in order to shout about it as loudly as possible! Why didn't Poroshenko lament in early December? The situation was the same. And who interrupted these wires, it is generally impossible to understand. These are places of intense fighting, "poured" there by both sides».
There are more than enough reports in the Ukrainian media about the threat to the residents of Avdiivka, which arose due to the provocations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On the other hand, there are no reports of how Ukrainian “defenders” take revenge on the civilian population of the DPR and LPR for their military failures.
Meanwhile, on the evening of January 30, schools in the cities and towns of the DPR adjacent to the front line received a message about the cancellation of classes due to the danger to the lives of children.
As Anna Dolgareva, the staff correspondent of SP in Donbass, wrote on her Facebook , about 200 miners with a blackout from damage during the shelling of the power line of the Zasyadko mine in Donetsk were almost evacuated by the middle of the day. At the same time, according to her, near the Butovka-Donetskaya mine in the Kievsky district of Donetsk, a shell hit a four-story building. A woman died.
According to other military correspondents on the Web, “arrivals” of Ukrainian shells began to be recorded closer to the center of the capital of the DPR. In this situation, it is difficult to talk about some kind of political settlement.
Now the more important question is: what balance of forces of the parties can we talk about. Is it possible to conclude that significant losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine testify to the fire superiority of the armies of the Donbass republics, which will allow them to push the enemy back from their cities?
The current aggravation was natural, - says military expert, historian Alexander Shirokorad. - More than six months since the Armed Forces of Ukraine have intensified their tactics of squeezing out the militias from their positions: somewhere at 200 meters, somewhere at half a kilometer. At the same time, disturbing fire was regularly fired at the settlements of the DPR and LPR adjacent to the demarcation line. From time to time civilians were killed. But the main objective Ukrainian warriors was to sow fear among the inhabitants. At the same time, the infrastructure was regularly destroyed.
The armies of the DPR and LPR, apparently, at the request of Russia, tried to respond with restraint. On the eve of the election of Donald Trump as president, Russia, more than ever before, was interested in not aggravating the situation in the Donbass. Against this background, the Armed Forces of Ukraine frankly became impudent.
At some point, patience ran out, especially after the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to use more powerful weapons, apparently trying to check how much Russia agreed with the United States over the Donbass.
The answer of the brigades of the Donbass republics was, in my opinion, completely adequate. Artillery of 152-mm caliber, Grad and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems were used.
Artillery in the DPR and LPR is now better organized. There is superiority in multiple rocket launcher systems. This is especially noticeable in the Mariupol direction. There, from the heights near the village of Shirokino, the militia can almost completely shoot through the entire territory adjacent to Mariupol, and, if necessary, the port of the city. Apparently, the city is not taken for political reasons, because the "owner" Rinat Akhmetov is there. He is considered to be in relative opposition to the Russophobic Poroshenko regime.
"SP": - That is, if desired, the fire superiority of the DPR and LPR will allow them to inflict a decisive defeat on the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
If an order is given to use all the firepower of the armies of the republics, it will be possible to suppress the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine within a couple of days and be in Kharkov in three days. And if you wish - to reach Kyiv.
"SP": - The Ukrainian side likes to talk about how "militants of the LNR and DNR" violate the truce and shell peaceful cities. However, not a single one who died from militia shelling on the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be presented to us. While the number of dead civilians on the territory of the DPR is in the hundreds. Moreover, each death is recorded, including the media. How can one explain that there are no dead civilians on the Ukrainian side?
It's a combination of several factors. Firstly, on the side that controls the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there are much fewer settlements near the front line. Indeed, in 2014, the militias did not have the strength to stop the mechanized columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the field. And they were able to stop the offensive only on the outskirts of their cities. Therefore, it turned out that now the DPR and LPR occupy the most densely populated territories of the former Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In addition, over the past time, the militia units have actually turned into a professional army, their artillery crews shoot more accurately than the Ukrainian security forces. One more moment. In the few settlements near the line of demarcation, which are under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there are few civilians left. Someone left at the beginning of hostilities, someone was later forced to become a refugee due to regular looting by Ukrainian volunteer battalions.
Personally, I do not have reliable information about the losses of the LDNR or the Armed Forces of Ukraine, - says the head of the analytical department of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin. - It is clear that in any war, each side tries to underestimate its losses and exaggerate the losses of the enemy. Therefore, I would not judge by the data on the number of dead that come in the media, about the fire potential of the opposing military units. Based on purely general observations, we can conclude that the fire potential of the parties in the Donbass is approximately comparable.
"SP": - Well, how would you explain the fact that the Ukrainian side, with all its desire, cannot present civilians who died from the shelling of "LDNR militants"?
Yes, this is an interesting point. It is clear that if there were dead civilians, the Ukrainian authorities would not hide this, but vice versa. Apparently, the artillery of the militias still shoots more selectively. In addition, we can probably talk about the best organization of intelligence in the DPR.
The fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer greater losses than the militias is explained by the laws of war, says the president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Colonel General Leonid Ivashov. - With a skillfully organized defense, the defenders always suffer less losses than the attackers. And as we know, it is the Ukrainian military who are trying to attack, probing for weaknesses in the positions of the militias.
In addition, the brigades of the DPR and LPR pay great attention to training. Residents of Donbass defend their land, they understand that the number of their troops is smaller, so they need to fight not by numbers, but by skill. While the majority of those who now join the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ideologically little motivated. They think not so much about a "united Ukraine" as about how to get material benefits from their military service. Such an army will always fight worse than one that knows that it has nowhere to retreat.
The end of June was marked by some of the toughest clashes since Marinka and Novolaspa - several directions were added to the already traditional “promka” at once. In principle, this is not surprising - both sides are trying to realize their goals during the summer campaign. Today it is a hybrid war with the dispersal of information in the media and the monotonous exhaustion of the enemy. According to official reports alone (not counting the PS), in June we had up to 26 irretrievable losses and about 170 wounded. In May, there were no less, and according to some sources, even more - positional warfare has always been bloody, and this one is no exception. The enemy also has an impressive number of dead and wounded; especially when you consider how often he tries to knock us out of fortified points and go through the “zero”, densely filled with mines. Not a day goes by without reports of militant casualties. Only during the battles on the Svetlodar Bulge, the operation in the coastal direction and the mortar shelling in Sakhanka, the hybrid army had up to 15 killed, 8 people were captured, many “three hundredths”. And this is for two or three days of activity out of a month and only in open sources. The total figures for the month can only be imagined, since L/DNR still does not have consolidated data for two years of the war.
What has changed in the reporting period? On June 27, the 54th ORB and the UDA carried out an extremely successful operation in the Vodiane area. We will keep silent about the details for now, but the militants were very lucky that the case was limited to 8 prisoners and 3 killed sappers from the “marine infantry” of the “DPR”, His Majesty Chance simply intervened. By the way, the video of the interrogation is revealing: several people with a month of service under the command of a squad leader with 4 months of experience were sent to ambush events for a separate task. The result is natural - the dead and prisoners. Loud near Dokuchaevsk, up to artillery strikes and self-propelled guns. Near Gorlovka, in the Toretsk region, there is also a large caliber; militants complain that something is flying towards them there. Traditionally, Avdiivka continues to rumble mortars almost every evening - here we carry out our tasks of pressure in the area of interchange, embankment and fire control in the sector, holding all positions both in permanent buildings and in vineyards. On June 29, up to 2-3 companies of the 25th battalion of the 54th brigade, the 59th brigade and the 1st assault company of the UDA of the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out a short attack on forward checkpoints on the Svitlodarsk Bulge on June 29. Suddenly, as a result of reconnaissance in force, the enemy defenses collapsed, units of the 7th brigade of the hybrid army withdrew, and the heights between Logvinovo and Kalinovka were taken. Mortars worked on the retreating, after about a couple of hours, barrel artillery from the militants began to actively pour in - up to three batteries from Gorlovka and Yenakiyevo. The 7th brigade, even among the militants, has the glory of "born in a faceted glass" - not the most combat-ready unit. Parts of the 100th DPR motorized rifle brigade, including tanks and artillery, were immediately deployed to help him.
Fire duels continued for several hours. They beat not only on the captured heights, but also on the positions on the defile, with everything they had: tank guns, 122-mm barrel, including "Carnations", mortars; occasionally used "reactors". The battle went on for at least 8-10 hours, according to the results - the line of advance remained approximately in the band: height 236.1, Gryazevsky pond, houses near it, the line of heights above Mironovsky. The enemy has tangible losses, including an officer in a dugout who remained on the territory occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine; the security forces also lost up to three people.
In our opinion, there were no large-scale offensives even with operational-tactical goals, not to mention the capture of Uglegorsk or the exit to Debaltseve. As usual, a small local incident was blown to the skies in in social networks. Officially, the media can only talk about the counterattack in the oncoming battle, which began at night. And, as always, the response of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Unofficially, this is a powerful signal within the political process: by attacking in the gray zone and knocking down forward blocks, we make it clear that it would be nice to hurry up with the implementation of the agreements so as not to once again raise the stakes and not introduce regular troops under sanctions. Moreover, Ukraine does not violate anything: the confrontation takes place in the zone that de jure belongs to us according to Minsk, and it was stormed right in live negotiation process in the winter of 2015. Naturally, Maryinka is also happening the other way around (not in terms of losses, don’t listen to the ravings of militants about platoons of destroyed tanks) - a test for the speed of reaction, including the Russian Federation, the approach of reinforcements, fire and counter-battery systems, communications in the conditions of electronic warfare. But, in general, summing up, from the moment of Shirokino, the initiative is ours. Since last summer, the enemy has been catching splashes on blocks, dying trying to cross the line of contact, and being killed by “flooding” without the slightest result. Oddly enough, although nothing changes, the enemy gets 6 people out of the rubble in Sakhanka from incoming mortar fire, and the corps reconnaissance battalion brings 8 people in bags, while the Special Forces kidnaps the person responsible for the death of our soldiers pilot search time. Over the past weeks, the trend of active operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the gray zone has become more and more pronounced: we are imposing on the enemy the place and time of contact.
The hybrid army operates in its own style: massive bombardments in the evening, sighting and short raids with large caliber, wandering mortars, heavy grenade launchers, sniper activity. On June 29, Krasnogorovka was processed from mortars, an attempt to advance a small group to the flank of the ATO forces was stopped near Novotroitsk, the enemy was covered with dense fire. Near Avdiivka, for a week and a half, episodic logging with the onset of evening is mostly heavy shooting, but also includes large caliber. It's hot in the triangle near Donetsk. The front rumbles from the Primorsky direction to Zaitsevo and the Svetlodarskaya arc. Near Mariupol, these are Shirokino, Gnutovo, Talakovka, Pischevik, Granitnoye - 152-mm systems and self-propelled guns work there with short shelling, Vasilki, LNG and 120-mm mortars are regularly poured. The Marines in the loss sector (one killed and three wounded) - an 82-mm mine unsuccessfully flew in, covering the group during cooking. In the south, the hybrid army traditionally uses nomadic groups of self-propelled guns, mortars in transport, ZU-23-2, ATGMs, but more and more often, instead of sporadic skirmishes, artillery duels are here. In the north, in the zone of responsibility of OTU "Lugansk", it is much quieter, but even here there are fire contacts - Novozvanovka, Novoaleksandrovka, Popasnaya.
Let's sum up the output. During the reporting period, units of the 10th OGSHBr also took up positions in the "stables" area, where during the first battle for the city there were positions of militants. The system is clearly visible: we rely on the building line and strong points, burrow into the ground for months, creating a single network of fire, dugouts from round timber, permanent buildings, rockades and firing positions, and then we take a step forward, occupying key positions in the area. So it was in Shirokino with Mayak and the private sector; now the same is applied in Maryinka. The enemy begins to react, trying to prevent the Armed Forces of Ukraine from gaining a foothold, and we meet him with mortar fire from prepared VOP and ROP. In the event of artillery strikes or "reactors", our gods of war are in base camps out of contact with the enemy, almost at the limit of the radius - the materiel, cars, tanks and supplies are well hidden there. And to carry out the orders, the units move out lightly, but to the already dug-in and engineer-prepared positions in the second line, working out and quickly breaking the distance. It is under this tactic that we are being shipped another dozen and a half radars, digital communications, they are preparing to send the Raven UAV - active defense based on infiltration into the gray zone, single system fire, counter-battery combat and pressure at several key points at once. In the "pressure cooker" pressure is gradually built up - in the center, in the south, on the Svetlodarskaya arc. Undermining IED militants near Zaitsevo, sappers in bags near Vodyany, downed strongholds of the 7th brigade, an attempt on the brigade commander Zarya (killed), miraculously survived two more separatist commanders. Now Maryinka, the regular fire impact on the communications of the hybrid army under the "industrial complex" and near Dokuchaevsk, the corpses near Sakhanka and two companies disabled near the Yasinovatskaya interchange - everything is going according to plan.
Ukraine violates "Minsk"? But it so happened that Avdiivka, according to the Minsk agreements, is behind the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as positions near Svetlodarsk, and the Primorsky direction. We are not violating anything: the brigade commander "Zarya" (in the world - the Russian officer Bushuev) was killed like Mozgovoy, and near Dokuchaevsk, unidentified Cossacks are taking revenge for the death of Dremov. This is not us, but such a flag of Ukraine, raised above the "stables", can be bought at any military store. Sooner or later the "pressure cooker" will explode. By that time, outside the ATO zone, we will have several armored personnel carriers prepared in Yavoriv and Shirlan, hundreds of artillery pieces restored from storage, more than 40 counter-battery radars, 70-80 new UAVs, more than 1,500 ATGMs commissioned in 2015-2016. A hybrid army can begin to gnaw through the next 15–20 km a year at the cost of hundreds of dead and wounded, break through kilometers of trenches and dugouts with its head, try to take towns the size of Marinka and lanes with four buildings. Or continue to stand under the blows of mortars, "boots", ACS, burying their bushuevs and "bats", not giving adequate figures for losses to the public, even for their supporters. Or there is a third, most adequate option - to give the border to the OSCE and take care of their declining economy, Kadyrov's bridges and the "Derbent people's republics." In any case, the ball is not only on our side - it is the hybrid army that regularly tries to reach the borders of the regions, storms Debaltseve during negotiations, massively fires at our positions with a large caliber. What is happening now is a perfectly adequate answer. For more than a year and a half, the enemy has stopped going to Kyiv and is busy fighting for "strategic" vineyards and stables. We cannot afford to lose 50 people a day in a full-scale war and transfer the economy to a military footing, so, step by step, gradually biting into the ground and blocking the activity of the Russian Federation in the field of diplomacy. There is no other way today. This is a very difficult and bloody road, but Ukraine will pass it. Sooner or later. We will win.
For me, the question in the title of this text is the key to understanding events. recent years in Ukraine. Long before the transformation of a part of eastern Ukraine into a theater of full-fledged military operations, the image of “two Ukraines” or even “ethnic zones of Ukraine” was established in the media.
The symbols of the "East of Ukraine" in this extremely simplified scheme were traditionally four regional centers - the largest industrial cities mentioned in the title of the article. Kharkiv, Dnepropetrovsk and Donetsk in the late Soviet period were millionaire cities, the population of Lugansk was approaching the mark of 500 thousand people. In all four cities, Russian prevailed as the language of everyday communication. In both 2004 and 2010 presidential elections, the majority of voters in these regions voted for Viktor Yanukovych, a native of the Donetsk region (although the percentage of votes was different).
In the spring-summer of 2014, the “east of Ukraine”, even as an imaginary integrity, ceased to exist. Donetsk and Luhansk became the centers of the self-proclaimed "people's republics" and experienced the war firsthand. Kharkiv escaped this fate, and Dnepropetrovsk became a symbol of Ukrainian loyalty and "the heart of Ukraine."
Can "identity" explain the war in Donbass? What was the role of local and central elites in plunging the region into war?
A very common answer to the question about the reasons for such a different trajectory of the post-Maidan history of the east of Ukraine refers to the peculiarities of the “identity of the inhabitants of Donbass”, usually described as “Soviet”. Moreover, depending on ideological preferences, this “identity” is assessed pejoratively or complimentary. In both cases, "DPR" and "LPR" are often identified with the entire population of the region, and physical violence is described as almost a matter of course because of the dissatisfaction of the "residents of Donbass" with the language or economic policy of Kyiv.
Context
The volatile conflict in Ukraine
Geopolitika 12.01.2016What will 2016 bring to Ukraine?
Atlantic Council 11.01.2016Putin recognizes Russia's military presence in Ukraine
The Guardian 18.12.2015 At the same time, in a variety of literature about the Maidan, the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass, a competent factual presentation of events in the center and regions is still critically lacking. At the same time, many researchers too easily succumb to the temptation of ideologization in explaining the motives and reasons for social action.In this essay, I would like to pose a few questions that I hope will become the starting point of serious research: Is the road from political sentiment to physical violence so direct? Can "identity" explain the war in Donbass and how to correctly describe public sentiment in a situation where the state is losing its monopoly on violence? What was the role of local and central elites in plunging the region into war?
Do you remember how it all started?
In Ukraine's loss of control over the situation in Donetsk and Luhansk, the most important date was April 6, 2014. On this day, several thousand protesters - with the obvious connivance of the police allegedly guarding the object - occupied the building of the Donetsk Regional State Administration and hung a Russian flag on it. This was already the second capture of the Donetsk Regional State Administration (the first one took place in early March, when the supporters of convening an extraordinary session of the regional council who entered the building were evacuated a few days later by the police, referring to a bomb found in the session hall).
It was not even the recapture itself that had fundamentally important consequences, but Kyiv's refusal to forcibly liberate the building. The special forces, who arrived for this purpose, headed by the then Deputy Prime Minister, Militia General Vitaly Yarema, never took up their duties.
On the same day, April 6, the building of the Lugansk Department of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) was stormed by a crowd of several thousand people, in front of which stood women and teenagers. In this case, too, the police simply stepped aside, but the SBU officers held the building for six and a half hours.
By evening, without receiving any support, they surrendered, and the people who broke into the building first of all went to the armory, which stored a large arsenal of weapons, in particular, about a thousand Kalashnikov assault rifles. To liberate the captured administrative buildings in Lugansk, special forces headed by the head of the SBU Valentin Nalyvaychenko flew there, but the assault, as in Donetsk, did not take place.
Thus, in early April 2014, the state of Ukraine finally lost its monopoly on violence in the two regional centers of Donbass. The refusal to use force was later explained by the general disorientation in the first weeks after the loss of Crimea by Ukraine and fears of bloodshed. The former head of the Lugansk SBU Alexander Petrulevich, about whose behavior on April 6 there is no unequivocal opinion, argued in an interview that the coordinators of the seizure of the building were betting precisely on the fact that the SBU officers would open fire on the protesters and this would be the reason for the introduction of "peacekeeping troops of the Russian Federation."
In early April 2014, the state of Ukraine finally lost its monopoly on violence in two regional centers of Donbass
The special operation (with elements of improvisation and spontaneity) on April 6, 2014 to seize key administrative buildings in Donetsk and Luhansk became possible due to the sum of situational factors: — the “neutral” position of the ruling class of the region (primarily local oligarchs and leaders of the Party of Regions Rinat Akhmetov in Donetsk and Alexander Efremov in Lugansk);
— passivity of law enforcement agencies (to understand which it is important to remember about discrediting power structures on the Maidan and their confusion in a situation of change of power);
- Ukraine's gradual loss of control over its border with Russia;
- the indecisiveness of the new Kyiv government, the reasons for which were not only the fear of bloodshed, but also the lack of political and economic interest in the Donbass (the “anti-Maidan” electorate obviously prevailed there and all business was controlled by local oligarchs, who were closely connected with the regime of the one who fled Kyiv Viktor Yanukovych).
It is worth recalling that both Donetsk and Lugansk had their own “Euromaidans”, and some rallies for the unity of Ukraine gathered several thousand people. However, these civilian initiatives could not change the balance of power in the region. The weaknesses of the Donetsk Maidan were its predominantly youth-underground character, a noticeable lack of media support (both at the local and all-Ukrainian level), and the inability of activists to formulate socio-economic postulates.
At the same time, “anti-Maidans” began to gather in large cities of eastern Ukraine, which combined the rejection of the new Kyiv authorities and fear of the “Bandera” (massively fueled by Kremlin propaganda) with pro-Russian sentiments of various stripes (including hopes for higher Russian salaries and pensions) and, which is important for Donbass, sharp anti-oligarchic rhetoric.
The question of the role of “guest performers” and “coordinators” from Russia and Crimea in these rallies needs a detailed study, but it is characteristic that the ideas of secession from Ukraine (i.e., separatism proper) spread to them precisely after the inclusion of Crimea into the Russian Federation.
Where there was no war
The Dnipropetrovsk region has no border with Russia. More importantly, there was no political and economic monopoly of the Party of Regions in this region. Both of these factors affected the development of events there in the spring of 2014. In Dnepropetrovsk, like Donetsk, there was a small Maidan, but the vast majority of the city's population did not take part in mass actions. On January 26, 2014, under the walls of the Dnipropetrovsk regional administration, “titushki” (illegal semi-criminal groups hired by officials appointed by Yanukovych) brutally beat pro-Maidan demonstrators, some of whom were later arrested by the police.
In late February and early March, several anti-Maidan demonstrations took place in the city, at which calls were made to storm the building of the regional administration. After that, several hundred local pro-Ukrainian activists occupied this building and organized round-the-clock duty in it. Yury Bereza (in the near future - the commander of the volunteer battalion "Dnepr-1" and a people's deputy) was chosen as the head of the Headquarters of the National Defense of the region. When the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who was appointed governor of the region on March 2, 2014, arrived in Dnepropetrovsk, the defenders of the Regional State Administration handed him the keys to the building.
Kolomoisky’s business empire, covering the whole of Ukraine and including such assets as the country’s largest bank (“Privatbank”), the oil and gas and chemical industries, mass media (including the largest TV channel “1 + 1”), aviation business (Ukraine International also known as MAU) grew out of his Dnepropetrovsk business.
Kolomoisky with his closest associates - Gennady Korban and Boris Filatov - made the "pro-Ukrainian" nature of Dnepropetrovsk and saving the city from a military scenario political capital and a tool to protect their business interests. In Dnepropetrovsk, the storming of administrative buildings did not come. On the other hand, Kolomoisky's team, not without enthusiasm, admitted in an interview that they used all methods, including non-legal ones, to suppress separatism.
Simultaneously with Kolomoisky, Sergei Taruta, also a major businessman, was appointed to the post of governor of the Donetsk region, who since 1995 headed the largest metallurgical company Industrial Union of Donbass. According to the latter, in Dnepropetrovsk “there was no such threat of a seizure of power” as in the Donbass, and “a sabotage scenario (with the active participation of activists previously involved in the Crimean events) developed only in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.” And Kolomoisky himself admitted in an interview: “of course, Dnipropetrovsk was not such a firing point as Donetsk or Luhansk.”
In any case, unlike Kolomoisky, in March 2014 Akhmetov and Efremov apparently expected to play the role of intermediaries between the new Kyiv authorities and the regions where their business interests are concentrated. At the same time, they probably underestimated the Russian factor and did not calculate the risks of a full-fledged military conflict. Rinat Akhmetov refused the post of Donetsk governor, criticized the idea of storming the seized administrative buildings, and tried to negotiate with the already armed people.
On May 20, 2014, Akhmetov initiated the “For a Peaceful Donbass” action, when factory and car horns were supposed to symbolize the rejection of the power methods of the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic”. “Akhmetov's horn” looked more like a belated act of desperation than an attempt to save the region from plunging into war. As early as April 12, the Donetsk website Ostrov wrote bitterly that Akhmetov and the Party of Regions “gave away Donetsk without a fight.”
It was on April 12, 2014 that the well-armed people seized the administrative buildings of Slavyanka in the Donetsk region, during which the “little green man’s” advice to passers-by not to go “over the curb” sounded, which became a landmark. So Slavyansk became the place of deployment of a paramilitary group under the command of Russian citizen Igor Girkin. And on July 6, Girkin’s column, which freely retreated from Slavyansk, entered Donetsk, finally making it the center of the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People's Republic».
Donetsk and Luhansk regions are not the only ones that have a border with Russia. Closest to it is Kharkov, which, precisely for this reason, from 1919 to 1934 was the capital of Soviet Ukraine. It is no coincidence that in Kharkiv on February 22, 2014, a “congress of deputies of all levels of the southeastern regions of Ukraine” was scheduled, at which Viktor Yanukovych, who had fled from Kyiv, was expected (but never took place). On March 1, the first seizure of the building of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration took place, on which the Russian flag hung for about 45 minutes.
On April 6, 2014, in sync with the takeovers in Donetsk and Luhansk, the building of the Kharkiv Regional Administration was reoccupied by anti-Maidan protesters. However, already on the morning of April 7, the Jaguar special unit from the Vinnitsa region cleared the building in 15 minutes without firing a shot and detained 65 people. We do not know how the events in Kharkiv would have developed if the Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov and the head of the National Guard Stepan Poltorak, who arrived there, had abandoned the assault following the example of Donetsk and Luhansk.
It can be assumed that the close personal ties of high-ranking officials with the city played a significant role in the specifics of Kharkiv history: Avakov, a Kharkiv resident, head of the Kharkiv regional administration during Yushchenko's presidency; General Poltorak - former rector of the Kharkov Academy of Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. By the way, it was the cadets of this academy who played an important role in the evening power confrontation under the administration building and one of them was seriously injured.
An important feature of Kharkov was the constant (including forceful) opposition of the local Maidan and anti-Maidan. It made an unambiguous picture of a "popular uprising" impossible. In Kharkiv (as well as Dnepropetrovsk, but not Donetsk or Luhansk) Maidan, the role of football fans, organized and tuned in to the use of force to resolve the conflict, gradually grew. In addition, again thanks to Poltorak and Avakov, the Kharkiv airfield was blocked by the Ukrainian military and special forces from other regions loyal to the new government remained in the city for some time.
Finally, Kharkiv Mayor Gennady Kernes (formerly a businessman, elected mayor in 2010 from the Party of Regions), who was previously seen in “separatist” events and, according to the journalist’s apt remark, “knows how to change without ever changing”, focusing on the alignment of forces, in the spring 2014 took a position loyal to Ukraine.
"Everything will be Donbass"?
Of course, in all the events described above, the mood of the population and the specifics of the regions of Ukraine played their role. Let me remind you that in the 19th century, most of the modern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including the two main cities, were part of the Yekaterinoslav province.
The booming coal mining industry defined the region's demographics throughout the 20th century: a combination of freedom and coercion, a characteristic respect for labor (especially mining) and strength, an aversion to ethnic exclusivity, a rather tolerant attitude towards the prison experience, a high percentage of pensioners, and the relative weakness of the "creative class". ". A special feeling of local pride and loyalty has formed in the region: “Donbass chooses its own”, “Donbass does not drive empty”, “Donbass cannot be forced to its knees”.
At the same time, neither Donetsk nor Luhansk regions represented an economic, linguistic or religious monolith. They included industrial agglomerations, the Azov region with a special history of Greek and Bulgarian colonization, and predominantly Ukrainian-speaking villages of Slobozhanshchyna. In this sense, one can agree with Elena Styazhkina that the word “Donbass” itself is a metaphor, too often used to refer to a non-existent cultural or political group “Donetsk”.
Donbass, like any other region of Ukraine, should not be idealized or demonized
Donbass, like any other region of Ukraine, should not be idealized or demonized. It is important to simply record his characteristic hostile and wary attitude towards Kyiv (and any other supra-regional center of power) and a sensitive grasp of the discriminatory rhetoric that both Ukrainian politicians and public figures easily allowed themselves in relation to the “residents of Donbass”.
All of the above does not in any way mean that the "Donbas residents" are collectively responsible for turning their region into a war zone. The fact that Maidan in Donetsk was in the minority does not mean that the majority supported joining Russia, for example. And misunderstanding and irritation about Kyiv did not at all mean a readiness to take up arms. Emotions (including political ones) and physical violence are fundamentally different things. The second prerequisite, as a rule, becomes special situation, for example, occupation or lack of power as such. This is exactly what happened in Donetsk and Lugansk.
The vast majority of residents chose a position of passive waiting or indifference to public affairs, which can be described by the words “so long as they don’t shoot” or bitterly called, following the example of the Luhansk philosopher Alexander Eremenko, “militant philistinism.”
Preliminary results
The events of the spring of 2014 developed so rapidly that seemingly insignificant nuances, the personal qualities of key players and their momentary decisions, unforeseen coincidences often played a key role in them. Neither Maidan nor anti-Maidan were politically homogeneous and static phenomena, and their dynamics await careful sociological and anthropological study. Equally important is a situational analysis of the behavior of local business and political elites in different regions of Ukraine.
On January 22, 2014, Sergey Nigoyan and Mikhail Zhiznevsky were shot dead on Grushevsky Street. For the first time in the entire post-Soviet history of Ukraine, people were killed during mass political protests. On February 18-20, more than 80 protesters and 17 police officers were killed by firearms on the Maidan and adjacent streets. Even before these events, the Yanukovych government had de-legitimized itself, deciding to involve criminal groups of “titushki” in political confrontation and even handing out weapons to them.
Physical violence quickly reached the regions. On March 13, in Donetsk, a 22-year-old activist of the local Svoboda, Dmitry Chernyavsky, died from stab wounds inflicted by anti-Maidan supporters. On March 15, during a night shootout near the office of the right-wing radical organization "Patriot of Ukraine" in Kharkov, two anti-Maidanists were killed. On May 2, as a result of clashes in Odessa, 48 people died, most of whom were anti-Maidan supporters.
The war on part of the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions arose from the sum of situational circumstances, the most important of which were: the behavior of local elites; Russian intervention (including military); indecision, miscalculations and mistakes of Kyiv. In the case of Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkiv, the decisive and unambiguously pro-Ukrainian actions of local business and political elites, as well as the lesser activity of pro-Russian forces, became the key factors in preserving the regions within Ukraine.
The self-withdrawal from active actions of the Donetsk elites and the paralysis of law enforcement agencies in the initial phase of the conflict (March-April 2014) played a decisive role in increasing the confusion of the population of the region and in the almost unhindered transition of the situation to a military channel. Ukraine's loss of its monopoly on violence in Donbas was preceded by the disorientation caused by the events in Crimea, where the post-Maidan government offered virtually no resistance. Russian politics Anschluss of the peninsula. However, not a single elected local government body in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions obeyed the demands to convene extraordinary sessions and make decisions on the illegitimacy of Kyiv (initially, this postulate, following the Crimean model, was brought to the fore by the leaders of the anti-Maidan).
The failure of the Kharkiv, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa "people's republics" project made it extremely difficult to implement the idea of "Novorossia", the hypothetical borders of which were announced by President Putin on his "direct line" on April 17, 2014. At the same time, the escalation of the situation in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics was directly related to the openness of the border with Russia, which one of the leaders of the DNR directly called "a matter of our survival."
From mid-May, the transfer of volunteers from the Russian Federation began there, and from the beginning of June, the supply of weapons. And since the second half of August 2014, according to the International "Memorial": "the armed conflict in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine has acquired the character of an international armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia." On August 28, President Poroshenko canceled his visit to Turkey, announcing "the actual introduction of Russian troops". Nevertheless, official Kyiv did not declare war on Russia and did not break off diplomatic relations with it.
Thus, part of the Donbass has become not just a new "hot spot", but also a time bomb for Ukraine. The war has become a daily routine, as well as the information and financial blockade, the access system, shelling settlements at both sides. According to the UN, more than 9,000 people have died in the war in Donbas so far, more than 20,000 have been injured and more than 2.5 million people have left their places of permanent residence in the war zone.
It is possible (and necessary) to argue about the correct definition of the conflict in the Donbass. But we cannot close our eyes to the fact that for more than a year, in the perception of many, it has become a civil war. Lugansk philosopher Oleksandr Eremenko, in his book “Reflections on the Luhansk Vendée,” expressed concern about the likelihood that “a civil war in the Donbass may well form a new socio-ethnic community. If this community arises, then it will not be Ukrainian, even anti-Ukrainian…”. In other words, the “Donbass identity”, especially if the current status quo is maintained and the “Transnistrian scenario” is further developed, may become a consequence (not a cause!) of the events of the spring of 2014 and the subsequent war.
Another important question is: where can the geographic boundary of the new community go? Let me remind you that part of the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the spring and summer of 2014 changed their status from “uncontrolled” to “controlled” by Kyiv. This happened, in particular, with two major cities Donetsk region, who from three to almost four months were in the "DPR" - Mariupol (a seaport with a population of about 500 thousand people) and Kramatorsk (with a population of more than 200 thousand).
In both cases, the change in status was not the result of some particular "identity" or guerrilla struggle, but the situation at the front. In the same way, joining the Ukrainian volunteer battalion or Novorossiya militia could mean not only agreement with this or that ideology, but also an attempt to survive or make a social advance in a situation of war.
A careful situational analysis of the dynamics of the conflict (with its social, economic, cultural, informational components) seems to be the most promising direction in the study of war, which two years ago seemed simply unbelievable.
Image copyright Reuters Image caption Over the three years of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, about 10 thousand people became its victims
April 14, 2017 marks three years since the signing of the acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov issued a decree on the start of an anti-terrorist operation (ATO) in the eastern regions of the country. This is the name given to a set of measures approved by a secret decision of the Security Council of Ukraine after the shelling of a column of Ukrainian security forces near Slovyansk.
From the first days of the operation, all law enforcement agencies of Ukraine were actively involved in it - the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the newly created National Guard, the Security Service (SBU) - as well as semi-spontaneously formed volunteer battalions.
Initially, three Ukrainian regions - Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv - were proclaimed "ATO zone" at once, but in September 2014 its borders were limited only to the first two regions.
Today, after several attempts to proclaim a "comprehensive truce" in eastern Ukraine, the "contact line" with "certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions" - as the territories of Donbass not controlled by Kyiv are officially called - is restless.
Despite the relative stabilization of the front line, shelling of the positions of the opposing sides is recorded from time to time almost along its entire length. Kyiv and representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk "People's Republics" accuse each other of violating the "silence regime" and periodically declare their opponents' plans to launch a large-scale offensive.
On the third anniversary of the outbreak of hostilities in the Donbass, the BBC Russian Service recalls the key dates of the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Early April 2014
In the cities of eastern Ukraine, rallies are held against the new government established in Kyiv after the removal of President Viktor Yanukovych. Some activists come up with pro-Russian slogans, in particular, calling for the annexation of the eastern regions to Russia according to the "Crimean scenario".
On April 6, protesters seized the buildings of the Donetsk and Kharkiv regional state administrations, as well as the building of the Luhansk department of the Security Service of Ukraine.
The next day, in Donetsk and Kharkov, activists proclaim the creation of "people's republics". In a matter of hours, the building of the Kharkov administration, Ukrainian special forces, in Donetsk and Luhansk, representatives of the Kyiv authorities initiate negotiations with the protesters.
Image copyright Artem Getman Image caption Pro-Russian separatists seized administrative publications and proclaimed the establishment of " people's power"On April 12, several dozen people under the command of Russian citizen Igor Girkin (Strelkov) seized administrative buildings in Slavyansk, Donetsk region.
Kyiv believes that the events of early April 2014 were initiated and coordinated by the Russian special services. Russia denies these accusations.
April 13-14, 2014
Armed supporters of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk people's republic" are firing at the fighters of the anti-terrorist unit of the SBU sent to Slovyansk. SBU captain Gennady Bilichenko dies in the clash - he is considered the first Ukrainian security official to die in the conflict in Donbass.
In the evening of the same day, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) adopts a decision "On urgent measures to overcome the terrorist threat and preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine", which is still classified as "secret".
Total combat losses of Ukrainian security forces:
person, of which:
2,242 - Armed Forces of Ukraine;
180 - National Guard;
127 - Ministry of Internal Affairs and police.
9,558 military personnel were injured.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The next day, he puts it into effect by his decree. President Alexander Turchinov. On the territory of Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkiv regions, an "anti-terrorist operation" officially begins with the participation of all law enforcement agencies of Ukraine and, in particular, combat aviation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
June-July 2014
After taking office as President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, Kyiv launches a large-scale counteroffensive. Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Lisichansk are passing under the control of the anti-terrorist operation forces.
In early July, Petro Poroshenko announced that "soon" the Ukrainian security forces would take Donetsk and Lugansk.
Image copyright UNIAN Image caption During the counter-offensive, the Ukrainian military regained control over a number of Donbas cities and were preparing to enter Donetsk and LuhanskIn July, a Malaysia Airlines passenger liner on flight MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur crashed near Snizhne, Donetsk region. All 298 people on board were killed.
An international investigation team concluded that the plane was shot down by a Buk missile. Russia categorically denies involvement in the tragedy.
August 2014
The offensive of the anti-terrorist operation forces was interrupted by their hardest defeat near Ilovaisk. According to the Ukrainian military prosecutor's office, 366 fighters were killed during the exit from the encirclement, and more than 150 went missing.
The leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that the course of the military operation was turned by units of regular troops Russian Federation who crossed the border and took part in hostilities. Moscow denies these accusations.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Defeat near Ilovaisk puts an end to a series of successes of the ATO forcesAt the same time, the self-proclaimed "people's republics" took control of Novoazovsk on the border with Russia and came close to Mariupol, but failed to take control of this city.
September 2014
Representatives of Ukraine and Russia, through the mediation of the OSCE, sign the “first Minsk agreement”, which provides for a bilateral ceasefire, amnesty for the participants in the conflict, granting special status to certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and holding local elections there.
Since 2014
died in Donbass
person, of which:
about 2 thousand - civilians.
23,455 people were injured.
United Nations Human Rights Mission
However, soon the parties to the conflict accused their opponents of disrupting the peace agreements, and in winter hostilities in the Donbas flared up with renewed vigor. The hottest points on the front were the Donetsk airport and the large transport hub of Debaltseve.
February 2015
As a result of many hours of negotiations with the participation of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, the "second Minsk agreements" are signed, detailing the previously signed document and tying the implementation of its points to specific time targets.
Image copyright EPA Image caption Observers assess the effectiveness of the Minsk agreements ambiguously, but all their signatories declare their commitment to these agreementsHowever, their implementation also stalled. For example, the transition of Debaltseve under the control of the DPR occurred after a complete and unconditional ceasefire was to be established in accordance with the Minsk agreements. Kyiv claims that Debaltseve came under separatist control due to the participation of military personnel in the hostilities Russian army. Moscow denies this.
2015-2017
The battles for Debaltseve were the last large-scale military operation of the conflict in the Donbass, however, even after that, relatively small clashes were constantly recorded on the line of demarcation.
In June of the same year, both sides of the conflict accused each other of an unsuccessful attack attempt in the Marinka area near Donetsk.
Image copyright UNIAN Image caption At the beginning of 2017, Avdiivka became the hottest spot on the Donbass front.In February 2016, hostilities in the Avdiivka region intensified: Kyiv and the self-proclaimed republics again accused their opponents of provocation.
At the end of 2016, the Svetodarskaya Bulge became the epicenter of the conflict, a line of defense formed after the withdrawal of the ATO forces from Debaltseve.
Finally, in early 2017, hostilities unfolded near the same Avdiivka: observers even spoke of a humanitarian crisis unfolding in the city.
internally displaced
persons from Donbass registered
808 thousand - pensioners;
about 240 thousand are children.
Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine
The Contact Group, which regularly meets in Minsk, from time to time announces the achievement of regular agreements on establishing a truce. The last of these ceasefires was to begin at 10 am on 13 April.
However, both Ukraine and the self-proclaimed "republics" state that hostilities continue. And they are accused of disrupting each other's agreements.
Representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) announced the start of another large-scale military action in the south-east of Ukraine if Kyiv continues to shell the territory of Donbass. As the DPR envoy Denis Pushilin told Izvestia, if the Ukrainian authorities do not comply with at least the first three points of the Minsk agreements, there will be a resumption of hostilities through the fault of Kyiv.
The situation is getting worse every day. There is no progress after regular negotiations on a political settlement. The situation remains tense, at any moment it can flare up and develop into full-fledged military clashes. Ukraine does not fulfill its obligations both in the military and in political sphere. This is seen not only by us, it is seen by our citizens, who put their signatures under the petition to the UN Security Council about Kyiv's failure to comply with the agreements. There are more than 320,000 such people in the DPR,” Denis Pushilin said. - Over the past 5-6 days, the situation has escalated to the maximum. And if Ukraine does not comply with at least the first three points of Minsk-2, open clashes will very soon resume in Donbass.
The first three points of the Minsk agreements read as follows:
An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation;
Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides at equal distances in order to create a security zone at least 50 km wide apart from each other;
Ensuring effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire regime and the withdrawal of heavy weapons by the OSCE from the first day of the withdrawal.
As Miroslav Rudenko, a deputy of the People's Council of the DPR, told Izvestiya, the two republics - the DPR and the LPR - will have the strength to adequately respond in the event of a resumption of hostilities by Ukraine.
In the event of a full-scale aggression from Ukraine, the two republics will have enough strength for a worthy response. Nobody forbade us to defend ourselves. Kyiv's military actions will be rebuffed, - said Miroslav Rudenko. - Ukraine has recently demonstrated unwillingness to implement a set of measures. International mediators acted as guarantors of the implementation of these measures; this is their area of responsibility. It is necessary that they influence Kyiv. Donbass, in turn, demonstrated a course towards resolving the conflict peacefully. If we talk about a new round of confrontation, then only Kyiv will act as the initiator in this case. The question arises: why do international mediators not influence their partners? We are talking about the countries that signed the document - about Germany and France. Responsibility also lies with the OSCE, whose monitoring mission has been on the territory of Ukraine for a long time.
Earlier, the Deputy Commander of the DPR Operational Command, Eduard Basurin, said that in July, 11 DPR servicemen were killed and 31 were injured as a result of shelling from Kyiv. There are casualties among the civilian population - one dead and more than two dozen wounded.
On August 2, 161 artillery shells were fired across the territory of the DPR. The village of Zaitsevo near Gorlovka, Yasinovataya and its surrounding villages of Spartak, Veseloye and Mineralnoye, the villages of Aleksandrovka and Staromikhaylovka in the west of the DPR, as well as Dokuchaevsk, the villages of Novaya Tavria, Kominternovo and Sakhanka in the south of the republic came under fire from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.